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Wednesday, 19 October 16
THE SHIPPING MARKET IS IN A WAIT AND SEE MODE - INTERMODAL
 We are now heading towards the end of a rather volatile 2016 for the dry bulk segment. During the last 10 months there were never any clear indications that hire rates would stabilize at viable levels, but after Q1 asset values rose. Now the shipping market is in a wait and see mode, still very uncertain in regards to whether this recent small spike will prove sustainable or not and of course how will it affect asset values going forward.
It's not that investors wish the market to get worse; it’s just that right now, prices do not reflect the absence of a substantial recovery in the freight market. In other words they don't really make sense, at least to most people.
Q1 was clearly the bottom as far as values are concerned, but that lead to increased demand for modern tonnage, a trend that eventually boosted prices all the way throughout the beginning of Q4. Ship owners simply did what they do best. They invested in a low market.
During the first 3 quarters of the year, Handysize and Supramax vessels were the crowd favorites with the total number of transactions reaching 109 and 95 respectively, while Capes were trailing third with 75 deals. All in all at the end of September, a total of 465 transactions of bulk carriers were reported as being concluded.
As the buyer pool now seems to be getting smaller, we can help but wonder how SnP activity will be affected during the weeks leading to the end of the year. It seems that the shipping industry is mostly focusing on what 2017 will bring and there many people out there quite optimistic. The reason for this rare burst of optimism is based on a number of factors.
Starting with the newbuilding contracting so far we are counting only 47 contracts, with 30 of those vessels being the Valemaxes ordered by Chinese interests. We were at a 9-year low up until September. Additionally we have the Water Ballast Treatment regulations coming into effect as of next year, which will most definitely have an impact on the fleet and eventually freight rates. Owners will have to decide if they will speed up the Special Survey, prepare to install WBT or scrap the respective vessels.
Speaking about scrapping, 2015 and the first half of 2016 where very active followed by a slower H2. Now, if in addition to the new WBT regulation no further substantial recovery is witnessed in the freight market during H1 2017, demolition activity will normally remain robust throughout the summer months of 2017 and prior to the deadline of the implementation in early September. Given that there are approximately 57 million dwt (856 vessels) that are older than 20 years this does not seem too farfetched.
So from one hand there are no clear signs that the charter market will pick up, but there are factors that could or should limit the supply of tonnage. Well yes, in this assumption there is a lot of wishfully thinking, but bear with me for a second. All of the above is a combination of facts and speculation but they could eventually put a dent in the size of the fleet. In a way, it seems that 2017 is probably the first year that there are a few reasons to believe that the fleet will start to stabilize. Given the fact that that Owners and shipping in general have demonstrated remarkable resilience in this market it is not that illogical to hope or even believe that the next year could end up better even than expected.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 01 November 16
IMPROVEMENT ON THE DEMAND SIDE ONLY BUT THE SUPPLY SIDE IS WORSE OFF - BIMCO
Back in May, BIMCO disclosed a projected “road to recovery” for the dry bulk shipping industry. The main message back then on what the ...
Monday, 31 October 16
INDONESIAN 5000 GAR COAL ROSE 5.56% WEEK OVER WEEK - CS COAL INDEX
COALspot.com: The price for thermal coal has recovered substantially since April 2016. The China’s new policy on its domestic coal miners, th ...
Friday, 28 October 16
STEAM COAL IMPORTS: CHINA AND INDIA'S ROLE REVERSALS - BEN TRIMMEL
While a sharp decline in European imports is a key driver of the expected fall in steam coal trade this year, China and India remain leading actors ...
Friday, 28 October 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ROSE DURING THE WEEK ENDING OCTOBER 22 - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.5 million short ton ...
Thursday, 27 October 16
73.08 PERCENT OF COAL PRODUCERS PREDICTED INDIA WILL NOT STOP COAL IMPORTS IN 2 TO 3 YEARS - POLL
COALspot released its weekly opinion poll "How likely do you think India will STOP thermal coal imports in 2-3 years?" this Monday.
...
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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