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Wednesday, 19 October 16
THE SHIPPING MARKET IS IN A WAIT AND SEE MODE - INTERMODAL
 We are now heading towards the end of a rather volatile 2016 for the dry bulk segment. During the last 10 months there were never any clear indications that hire rates would stabilize at viable levels, but after Q1 asset values rose. Now the shipping market is in a wait and see mode, still very uncertain in regards to whether this recent small spike will prove sustainable or not and of course how will it affect asset values going forward.
It's not that investors wish the market to get worse; it’s just that right now, prices do not reflect the absence of a substantial recovery in the freight market. In other words they don't really make sense, at least to most people.
Q1 was clearly the bottom as far as values are concerned, but that lead to increased demand for modern tonnage, a trend that eventually boosted prices all the way throughout the beginning of Q4. Ship owners simply did what they do best. They invested in a low market.
During the first 3 quarters of the year, Handysize and Supramax vessels were the crowd favorites with the total number of transactions reaching 109 and 95 respectively, while Capes were trailing third with 75 deals. All in all at the end of September, a total of 465 transactions of bulk carriers were reported as being concluded.
As the buyer pool now seems to be getting smaller, we can help but wonder how SnP activity will be affected during the weeks leading to the end of the year. It seems that the shipping industry is mostly focusing on what 2017 will bring and there many people out there quite optimistic. The reason for this rare burst of optimism is based on a number of factors.
Starting with the newbuilding contracting so far we are counting only 47 contracts, with 30 of those vessels being the Valemaxes ordered by Chinese interests. We were at a 9-year low up until September. Additionally we have the Water Ballast Treatment regulations coming into effect as of next year, which will most definitely have an impact on the fleet and eventually freight rates. Owners will have to decide if they will speed up the Special Survey, prepare to install WBT or scrap the respective vessels.
Speaking about scrapping, 2015 and the first half of 2016 where very active followed by a slower H2. Now, if in addition to the new WBT regulation no further substantial recovery is witnessed in the freight market during H1 2017, demolition activity will normally remain robust throughout the summer months of 2017 and prior to the deadline of the implementation in early September. Given that there are approximately 57 million dwt (856 vessels) that are older than 20 years this does not seem too farfetched.
So from one hand there are no clear signs that the charter market will pick up, but there are factors that could or should limit the supply of tonnage. Well yes, in this assumption there is a lot of wishfully thinking, but bear with me for a second. All of the above is a combination of facts and speculation but they could eventually put a dent in the size of the fleet. In a way, it seems that 2017 is probably the first year that there are a few reasons to believe that the fleet will start to stabilize. Given the fact that that Owners and shipping in general have demonstrated remarkable resilience in this market it is not that illogical to hope or even believe that the next year could end up better even than expected.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 07 November 16
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE ROSE 59.57 PER CENT YEAR TO MONTH
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal benchmark price hits to its highest level since May 2013. The government declared benchmark prices for Indo ...
Monday, 07 November 16
HANDYSIZE: THE ASIAN INDICES RECORDED A GRADUAL DROP EVERY DAY - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A rumour-fuelled market this week but essentially rates a touch firmer and owners cautiously optimistic. The flotilla of vessels heading ...
Monday, 07 November 16
THE SUPRAMAX CHARTER RATES FOR INDONESIA TO INDIA WERE RATING AT AROUND $7500-8000 A DAY
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose slightly and ending in a positive note this past wee ...
Friday, 04 November 16
U.S COAL PRODUCTION UP WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 17 million short tons ...
Friday, 04 November 16
INDONESIAN INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT TRENDS ARE UNANIMOUSLY AFFIRMED
Press Release: October 20-21, 2016 Indonesia Infrastructure Summit (IIC) opened at the Hyatt Hotel in Jakarta The theme of the meeting was "Pr ...
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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