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Wednesday, 19 October 16
THE SHIPPING MARKET IS IN A WAIT AND SEE MODE - INTERMODAL
 We are now heading towards the end of a rather volatile 2016 for the dry bulk segment. During the last 10 months there were never any clear indications that hire rates would stabilize at viable levels, but after Q1 asset values rose. Now the shipping market is in a wait and see mode, still very uncertain in regards to whether this recent small spike will prove sustainable or not and of course how will it affect asset values going forward.
It's not that investors wish the market to get worse; it’s just that right now, prices do not reflect the absence of a substantial recovery in the freight market. In other words they don't really make sense, at least to most people.
Q1 was clearly the bottom as far as values are concerned, but that lead to increased demand for modern tonnage, a trend that eventually boosted prices all the way throughout the beginning of Q4. Ship owners simply did what they do best. They invested in a low market.
During the first 3 quarters of the year, Handysize and Supramax vessels were the crowd favorites with the total number of transactions reaching 109 and 95 respectively, while Capes were trailing third with 75 deals. All in all at the end of September, a total of 465 transactions of bulk carriers were reported as being concluded.
As the buyer pool now seems to be getting smaller, we can help but wonder how SnP activity will be affected during the weeks leading to the end of the year. It seems that the shipping industry is mostly focusing on what 2017 will bring and there many people out there quite optimistic. The reason for this rare burst of optimism is based on a number of factors.
Starting with the newbuilding contracting so far we are counting only 47 contracts, with 30 of those vessels being the Valemaxes ordered by Chinese interests. We were at a 9-year low up until September. Additionally we have the Water Ballast Treatment regulations coming into effect as of next year, which will most definitely have an impact on the fleet and eventually freight rates. Owners will have to decide if they will speed up the Special Survey, prepare to install WBT or scrap the respective vessels.
Speaking about scrapping, 2015 and the first half of 2016 where very active followed by a slower H2. Now, if in addition to the new WBT regulation no further substantial recovery is witnessed in the freight market during H1 2017, demolition activity will normally remain robust throughout the summer months of 2017 and prior to the deadline of the implementation in early September. Given that there are approximately 57 million dwt (856 vessels) that are older than 20 years this does not seem too farfetched.
So from one hand there are no clear signs that the charter market will pick up, but there are factors that could or should limit the supply of tonnage. Well yes, in this assumption there is a lot of wishfully thinking, but bear with me for a second. All of the above is a combination of facts and speculation but they could eventually put a dent in the size of the fleet. In a way, it seems that 2017 is probably the first year that there are a few reasons to believe that the fleet will start to stabilize. Given the fact that that Owners and shipping in general have demonstrated remarkable resilience in this market it is not that illogical to hope or even believe that the next year could end up better even than expected.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 03 November 16
THE INDEX BASED COAL SALES & PURCHASE STRATEGY MAKES MORE EFFICIENT, SAYS 55.17% END-USERS
Considering the current coal market condition, the Index based coal sales & purchase strategy make more efficient was deemed the winner by 57.0 ...
Thursday, 03 November 16
CAPESIZE: BRAZIL/CHINA RATES MOVED TO THE $11 PMT LEVEL; WEST AUSTRALIA/CHINA ROUTE MOVED UP CLOSE TO MID $5 PMT LEVEL - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
In the Atlantic we see a bit more activity than in the eastern hemisphere, says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report. Fhauls via Black ...
Wednesday, 02 November 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
A week before the U.S. presidential election, everyone is eager to see the socio-political effects that the result of these elections will have. As ...
Wednesday, 02 November 16
SHIP OPERATING COSTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE IN BOTH 2016 AND 2017 - MOORE STEPHENS
Vessel operating costs are expected to rise in both 2016 and 2017. Repairs and maintenance and spares are the cost categories which are likely to i ...
Tuesday, 01 November 16
PANAMAX : A FAIR AMOUNT OF SIDEWAYS SHIPPING IN RATES - ALLIED SHIPPING
Capesize
A very sluggish start to the week, with rates dropping considerably as all optimism seems to have evaporated over the weekend. According ...
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The University of Queensland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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