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Wednesday, 05 October 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
 On September 27th the OPEC petroleum and energy ministers arrived in Algeria to attend the International Energy Forum, which brought together producers and consumers to discuss the present energy market conditions. After the closing of the IEF conference, OPEC Ministers held informal talks in an effort to cut a deal that would either freeze or reduce oil supply in pursuit of more stabilized markets and elevated oil prices. The current output OPEC members is more than 33.2 million barrels a day and inventories will grow even higher if no action is taken. It has been argued that oil production needs to be reduced by 1 million barrels a day so that the market rebalances. Likewise, Algeria’s energy minister reasoned that “oil has sufficiently fluctuated on speculation that OPEC and Russia will agree to support oil prices in the midst of oversupply”.
The question that arises is if OPEC members can do the impossible, which for most seems like having a mountain to climb. As discussed, one of the reasons that oil prices are low is due to the oversupplied market with members having had no success in negotiating production cutbacks so far. Major producers, driven by Saudi Arabia have been pumping at near record levels over the last two years, trying to maintain their market share by squeezing out higher cost producers such as the U.S and Canada. Consequently, since 2014 oil prices have dropped by 60% and U.S. production has diminished. The income of nations such as Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Russia depends on their exports and low prices have proven to be troublesome. Furthermore, consenting to production freeze at current levels may seem a fair compromise but not a promising solution. IEA forecasts that global oil surplus will last well into 2017 as demand grows at a slower pace than previously foreseen, particularly in Asia. Meanwhile, not only OPEC members output is at record levels but Russia is also producing close to its maximum capacity, while Libya and Nigeria indicate they want to raise their output for the rest of this year.
Moreover, Iran's full on return earlier this year further affected the market, as the country has been continuously increasing its oil output in an effort to once more claim its place as one of the world's top oil exporters. In any case, Saudi Arabia won’t wish for Iran to expand its production while the country itself is cutting back as that would mean handing over market share to its main regional competitor. It was recently reported that Saudi Arabia may agree to decrease production if only Iran acknowledges freezing its output level. Either way, once OPEC members come to an agreement they won’t want prices to go higher than $55-60 per barrel as they will risk helping higher cost competitors, such as shale oil producers, to get back in the game.
Inevitably, the equilibrium point is fragile for leading oil producers to achieve. On one side, a greedy stance to accomplish higher prices will give the leeway to higher cost producers to step in and on the other side a conservative attitude to defend their market share, flirts with the risk of operating at a loss. The global oil market has faced numerous difficulties, deriving essentially from excess supply. Oil-exporting countries and companies’ profits have deteriorated, increasing their budget deficits and crippling their economy. Additionally, those low prices inevitably lead to layoffs and reductions in new venture spending. But even with all these negative effects, the scenario in which the stagnation of oil major oil producers eventually leads to demand exceeding supply and leads to higher prices is a bit off. So IT IS really down to OPEC’s joined action despite many believing that the organization can’t do much these days.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 22 November 16
THE COMMODITIES MARKETS HAD SHOWED GREATER PROMISE SINCE THE SUMMER PERIOD - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
We have all borne witness to the sluggish pace of trade growth witnessed during the course of the past 4 years as well as the even slower pace note ...
Monday, 21 November 16
CHINA IS ESTIMATED TO SEE HIGHEST IMPORTED COAL DEMAND LEVEL IN 2017, POLL SAYS
“Which country is estimated to see highest imported coal demand level in 2017?”
The on-line opinion poll conducted by COALsp ...
Monday, 21 November 16
KOMIPO IS LOOKING FOR 140K MT OF SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL FOR FEB-MAR 2017 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 140,000 Metric Tons of Sub-Bituminous coal for i ...
Monday, 21 November 16
BALTIC DRY INDEX SURGES TO 1257 POINTS W/E 18 NOV; BPI ROSE 37.3% W/W
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rally continues this past week and ending on a positive n ...
Friday, 18 November 16
CAPESIZE: THE COMMODITIES PRICES ARE INCREASING, RESULTING IN MORE DEMAND AND CONSEQUENTLY RATES ARE MAKING A BIG JUMP - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Apart from booming S. Africa where owners have obtained USD 14-15k to MEG/India and around mid USD 12k to China, the Pacific market has ...
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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