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Wednesday, 05 October 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
 On September 27th the OPEC petroleum and energy ministers arrived in Algeria to attend the International Energy Forum, which brought together producers and consumers to discuss the present energy market conditions. After the closing of the IEF conference, OPEC Ministers held informal talks in an effort to cut a deal that would either freeze or reduce oil supply in pursuit of more stabilized markets and elevated oil prices. The current output OPEC members is more than 33.2 million barrels a day and inventories will grow even higher if no action is taken. It has been argued that oil production needs to be reduced by 1 million barrels a day so that the market rebalances. Likewise, Algeria’s energy minister reasoned that “oil has sufficiently fluctuated on speculation that OPEC and Russia will agree to support oil prices in the midst of oversupply”.
The question that arises is if OPEC members can do the impossible, which for most seems like having a mountain to climb. As discussed, one of the reasons that oil prices are low is due to the oversupplied market with members having had no success in negotiating production cutbacks so far. Major producers, driven by Saudi Arabia have been pumping at near record levels over the last two years, trying to maintain their market share by squeezing out higher cost producers such as the U.S and Canada. Consequently, since 2014 oil prices have dropped by 60% and U.S. production has diminished. The income of nations such as Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Russia depends on their exports and low prices have proven to be troublesome. Furthermore, consenting to production freeze at current levels may seem a fair compromise but not a promising solution. IEA forecasts that global oil surplus will last well into 2017 as demand grows at a slower pace than previously foreseen, particularly in Asia. Meanwhile, not only OPEC members output is at record levels but Russia is also producing close to its maximum capacity, while Libya and Nigeria indicate they want to raise their output for the rest of this year.
Moreover, Iran's full on return earlier this year further affected the market, as the country has been continuously increasing its oil output in an effort to once more claim its place as one of the world's top oil exporters. In any case, Saudi Arabia won’t wish for Iran to expand its production while the country itself is cutting back as that would mean handing over market share to its main regional competitor. It was recently reported that Saudi Arabia may agree to decrease production if only Iran acknowledges freezing its output level. Either way, once OPEC members come to an agreement they won’t want prices to go higher than $55-60 per barrel as they will risk helping higher cost competitors, such as shale oil producers, to get back in the game.
Inevitably, the equilibrium point is fragile for leading oil producers to achieve. On one side, a greedy stance to accomplish higher prices will give the leeway to higher cost producers to step in and on the other side a conservative attitude to defend their market share, flirts with the risk of operating at a loss. The global oil market has faced numerous difficulties, deriving essentially from excess supply. Oil-exporting countries and companies’ profits have deteriorated, increasing their budget deficits and crippling their economy. Additionally, those low prices inevitably lead to layoffs and reductions in new venture spending. But even with all these negative effects, the scenario in which the stagnation of oil major oil producers eventually leads to demand exceeding supply and leads to higher prices is a bit off. So IT IS really down to OPEC’s joined action despite many believing that the organization can’t do much these days.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 18 November 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION TOTALS 16.8 MMST, DOWN 0.8%, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.8 million short ton ...
Thursday, 17 November 16
FROTHY THERMAL COAL PRICES POINT TO DOWNSIDE PRESSURES IN 2017 - FITCH
Fitch Ratings says in an Outlook Report that the Asian thermal coal industry will remain under pressure in 2017 due to more-than-adequate capacity ...
Thursday, 17 November 16
CHINA STEEL EXPORTS TO REMAIN HIGH IN 2017, FITCH SAYS
Fitch Ratings expects Chinese steel exports to remain at around 100 million metric tons (Mt) in 2017, due to flat 'apparent' consumption an ...
Wednesday, 16 November 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
Going through a relatively interesting second half of the year so far in the ship repair sector, we are experiencing a volatile climate of differen ...
Tuesday, 15 November 16
CHINA, FOR MANY YEARS NOW HAS SERVED AS A MAJOR GROWTH ENGINE FOR ASIA - ALLIED SHIPPING RESEARCH
It’s been a turbulent couple of days after the announcement of the U.S. Presidential results in the early hours of Wednesday.
After week ...
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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