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Wednesday, 05 October 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
 On September 27th the OPEC petroleum and energy ministers arrived in Algeria to attend the International Energy Forum, which brought together producers and consumers to discuss the present energy market conditions. After the closing of the IEF conference, OPEC Ministers held informal talks in an effort to cut a deal that would either freeze or reduce oil supply in pursuit of more stabilized markets and elevated oil prices. The current output OPEC members is more than 33.2 million barrels a day and inventories will grow even higher if no action is taken. It has been argued that oil production needs to be reduced by 1 million barrels a day so that the market rebalances. Likewise, Algeria’s energy minister reasoned that “oil has sufficiently fluctuated on speculation that OPEC and Russia will agree to support oil prices in the midst of oversupply”.
The question that arises is if OPEC members can do the impossible, which for most seems like having a mountain to climb. As discussed, one of the reasons that oil prices are low is due to the oversupplied market with members having had no success in negotiating production cutbacks so far. Major producers, driven by Saudi Arabia have been pumping at near record levels over the last two years, trying to maintain their market share by squeezing out higher cost producers such as the U.S and Canada. Consequently, since 2014 oil prices have dropped by 60% and U.S. production has diminished. The income of nations such as Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Russia depends on their exports and low prices have proven to be troublesome. Furthermore, consenting to production freeze at current levels may seem a fair compromise but not a promising solution. IEA forecasts that global oil surplus will last well into 2017 as demand grows at a slower pace than previously foreseen, particularly in Asia. Meanwhile, not only OPEC members output is at record levels but Russia is also producing close to its maximum capacity, while Libya and Nigeria indicate they want to raise their output for the rest of this year.
Moreover, Iran's full on return earlier this year further affected the market, as the country has been continuously increasing its oil output in an effort to once more claim its place as one of the world's top oil exporters. In any case, Saudi Arabia won’t wish for Iran to expand its production while the country itself is cutting back as that would mean handing over market share to its main regional competitor. It was recently reported that Saudi Arabia may agree to decrease production if only Iran acknowledges freezing its output level. Either way, once OPEC members come to an agreement they won’t want prices to go higher than $55-60 per barrel as they will risk helping higher cost competitors, such as shale oil producers, to get back in the game.
Inevitably, the equilibrium point is fragile for leading oil producers to achieve. On one side, a greedy stance to accomplish higher prices will give the leeway to higher cost producers to step in and on the other side a conservative attitude to defend their market share, flirts with the risk of operating at a loss. The global oil market has faced numerous difficulties, deriving essentially from excess supply. Oil-exporting countries and companies’ profits have deteriorated, increasing their budget deficits and crippling their economy. Additionally, those low prices inevitably lead to layoffs and reductions in new venture spending. But even with all these negative effects, the scenario in which the stagnation of oil major oil producers eventually leads to demand exceeding supply and leads to higher prices is a bit off. So IT IS really down to OPEC’s joined action despite many believing that the organization can’t do much these days.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 04 December 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT DECLINED 11.9% W/E 26 NOV; UP 1.4% Y/Y, EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.2 million short ton ...
Thursday, 01 December 16
OIL PRICES MAY SEE LITTLE GROWTH BEFORE 2018, FITCH RATINGS SAYS
High inventories and the potential for US shale production to respond quickly to any market tightening mean oil prices may flat line in 2017 before ...
Thursday, 01 December 16
CHINA 2017 OIL, GAS OUTPUT DROP MAY WORSEN ON CAPEX CUT: FITCH
China's oil and gas production may shrink even more in 2017 than in 2016 after the country's leading oil companies cut exploration and prod ...
Thursday, 01 December 16
ANOTHER WONDERFUL WEEK FOR PANAMAX - FEARNLEY
Supramax
A slower start to the week in the Pacific compared to last Trips from N. China to S. China is paying in the range of low USD 5k, while I ...
Tuesday, 29 November 16
AUSTRALIA'S PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.08 MT OF COAL IN OCTOBER; DOWN 10.39% M/M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU1,124.7 Mi ...
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The University of Queensland
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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