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Wednesday, 05 October 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
 On September 27th the OPEC petroleum and energy ministers arrived in Algeria to attend the International Energy Forum, which brought together producers and consumers to discuss the present energy market conditions. After the closing of the IEF conference, OPEC Ministers held informal talks in an effort to cut a deal that would either freeze or reduce oil supply in pursuit of more stabilized markets and elevated oil prices. The current output OPEC members is more than 33.2 million barrels a day and inventories will grow even higher if no action is taken. It has been argued that oil production needs to be reduced by 1 million barrels a day so that the market rebalances. Likewise, Algeria’s energy minister reasoned that “oil has sufficiently fluctuated on speculation that OPEC and Russia will agree to support oil prices in the midst of oversupply”.
The question that arises is if OPEC members can do the impossible, which for most seems like having a mountain to climb. As discussed, one of the reasons that oil prices are low is due to the oversupplied market with members having had no success in negotiating production cutbacks so far. Major producers, driven by Saudi Arabia have been pumping at near record levels over the last two years, trying to maintain their market share by squeezing out higher cost producers such as the U.S and Canada. Consequently, since 2014 oil prices have dropped by 60% and U.S. production has diminished. The income of nations such as Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Russia depends on their exports and low prices have proven to be troublesome. Furthermore, consenting to production freeze at current levels may seem a fair compromise but not a promising solution. IEA forecasts that global oil surplus will last well into 2017 as demand grows at a slower pace than previously foreseen, particularly in Asia. Meanwhile, not only OPEC members output is at record levels but Russia is also producing close to its maximum capacity, while Libya and Nigeria indicate they want to raise their output for the rest of this year.
Moreover, Iran's full on return earlier this year further affected the market, as the country has been continuously increasing its oil output in an effort to once more claim its place as one of the world's top oil exporters. In any case, Saudi Arabia won’t wish for Iran to expand its production while the country itself is cutting back as that would mean handing over market share to its main regional competitor. It was recently reported that Saudi Arabia may agree to decrease production if only Iran acknowledges freezing its output level. Either way, once OPEC members come to an agreement they won’t want prices to go higher than $55-60 per barrel as they will risk helping higher cost competitors, such as shale oil producers, to get back in the game.
Inevitably, the equilibrium point is fragile for leading oil producers to achieve. On one side, a greedy stance to accomplish higher prices will give the leeway to higher cost producers to step in and on the other side a conservative attitude to defend their market share, flirts with the risk of operating at a loss. The global oil market has faced numerous difficulties, deriving essentially from excess supply. Oil-exporting countries and companies’ profits have deteriorated, increasing their budget deficits and crippling their economy. Additionally, those low prices inevitably lead to layoffs and reductions in new venture spending. But even with all these negative effects, the scenario in which the stagnation of oil major oil producers eventually leads to demand exceeding supply and leads to higher prices is a bit off. So IT IS really down to OPEC’s joined action despite many believing that the organization can’t do much these days.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 12 December 16
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOFT THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline this past week and ending on a negative note week ...
Thursday, 08 December 16
STABLE OUTLOOK FOR GLOBAL MINING IN 2017 : FITCH
Fitch Ratings' sector and rating outlooks for the global mining industry in 2017 are both stable, reflecting Fitch's view that prices have ...
Thursday, 08 December 16
CHINESE COAL DEMAND WOULD BE THE KEY FACTOR THAT INFLUENCE WORLD COAL PRICES IN 2017, POLL
“WHAT ARE THE KEY FACTORS THAT MAY INFLUENCE WORLD'S COAL PRICES IN 2017?”
The on-line opinion poll conducted by COALspot.com ...
Thursday, 08 December 16
PANAMAX: THE FIRM TENDENCY CONTINUES IN BOTH HEMISPHERES - FEARNLEY
Supramax
Market remained firm - true mostly within Atlantic.
Star performer USG remained its title, where Supras reached around USD 21k ...
Wednesday, 07 December 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
Looking back at my previous end-of-year insights, for the last seven years, in each and every one of them, I begin with something like “there ...
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PTC India Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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