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Wednesday, 05 October 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
 On September 27th the OPEC petroleum and energy ministers arrived in Algeria to attend the International Energy Forum, which brought together producers and consumers to discuss the present energy market conditions. After the closing of the IEF conference, OPEC Ministers held informal talks in an effort to cut a deal that would either freeze or reduce oil supply in pursuit of more stabilized markets and elevated oil prices. The current output OPEC members is more than 33.2 million barrels a day and inventories will grow even higher if no action is taken. It has been argued that oil production needs to be reduced by 1 million barrels a day so that the market rebalances. Likewise, Algeria’s energy minister reasoned that “oil has sufficiently fluctuated on speculation that OPEC and Russia will agree to support oil prices in the midst of oversupply”.
The question that arises is if OPEC members can do the impossible, which for most seems like having a mountain to climb. As discussed, one of the reasons that oil prices are low is due to the oversupplied market with members having had no success in negotiating production cutbacks so far. Major producers, driven by Saudi Arabia have been pumping at near record levels over the last two years, trying to maintain their market share by squeezing out higher cost producers such as the U.S and Canada. Consequently, since 2014 oil prices have dropped by 60% and U.S. production has diminished. The income of nations such as Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Russia depends on their exports and low prices have proven to be troublesome. Furthermore, consenting to production freeze at current levels may seem a fair compromise but not a promising solution. IEA forecasts that global oil surplus will last well into 2017 as demand grows at a slower pace than previously foreseen, particularly in Asia. Meanwhile, not only OPEC members output is at record levels but Russia is also producing close to its maximum capacity, while Libya and Nigeria indicate they want to raise their output for the rest of this year.
Moreover, Iran's full on return earlier this year further affected the market, as the country has been continuously increasing its oil output in an effort to once more claim its place as one of the world's top oil exporters. In any case, Saudi Arabia won’t wish for Iran to expand its production while the country itself is cutting back as that would mean handing over market share to its main regional competitor. It was recently reported that Saudi Arabia may agree to decrease production if only Iran acknowledges freezing its output level. Either way, once OPEC members come to an agreement they won’t want prices to go higher than $55-60 per barrel as they will risk helping higher cost competitors, such as shale oil producers, to get back in the game.
Inevitably, the equilibrium point is fragile for leading oil producers to achieve. On one side, a greedy stance to accomplish higher prices will give the leeway to higher cost producers to step in and on the other side a conservative attitude to defend their market share, flirts with the risk of operating at a loss. The global oil market has faced numerous difficulties, deriving essentially from excess supply. Oil-exporting countries and companies’ profits have deteriorated, increasing their budget deficits and crippling their economy. Additionally, those low prices inevitably lead to layoffs and reductions in new venture spending. But even with all these negative effects, the scenario in which the stagnation of oil major oil producers eventually leads to demand exceeding supply and leads to higher prices is a bit off. So IT IS really down to OPEC’s joined action despite many believing that the organization can’t do much these days.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 14 December 16
INTERNATIONAL TRIBUNAL DISMISSED CHURCHILL MINING'S DAMAGES CLAIM AGAINST REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA
The Directors of Churchill Mining plc advise that, the ICSID Tribunal (“Tribunal”) granted Indonesia’s application to dismiss the ...
Wednesday, 14 December 16
20/20 VISION! - JOHN N. COTZIAS
2020; A year that could be changing shipping. In early November, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) announced that it would set a 0.5% s ...
Tuesday, 13 December 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET MAY WELL BE SHOWING SIGNS OF HEADING FOR ITS DOWNWARD CORRECTIVE PHASE - ALLIED
2016 has been a tough market for dry bulkers and through these difficult earnings, we have seen some of the lowest prices being noted historically ...
Tuesday, 13 December 16
COAL DEMAND GROWTH TO STALL AS APPETITE WANES, ACCORDING TO IEA
Growth in global coal demand will stall over the next five years as the appetite for the fuel wanes and other energy sources gain ground, according ...
Monday, 12 December 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION TOTALS 16.3 MMST, UP 7.4% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.3 million short ton ...
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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