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Wednesday, 05 October 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
 On September 27th the OPEC petroleum and energy ministers arrived in Algeria to attend the International Energy Forum, which brought together producers and consumers to discuss the present energy market conditions. After the closing of the IEF conference, OPEC Ministers held informal talks in an effort to cut a deal that would either freeze or reduce oil supply in pursuit of more stabilized markets and elevated oil prices. The current output OPEC members is more than 33.2 million barrels a day and inventories will grow even higher if no action is taken. It has been argued that oil production needs to be reduced by 1 million barrels a day so that the market rebalances. Likewise, Algeria’s energy minister reasoned that “oil has sufficiently fluctuated on speculation that OPEC and Russia will agree to support oil prices in the midst of oversupply”.
The question that arises is if OPEC members can do the impossible, which for most seems like having a mountain to climb. As discussed, one of the reasons that oil prices are low is due to the oversupplied market with members having had no success in negotiating production cutbacks so far. Major producers, driven by Saudi Arabia have been pumping at near record levels over the last two years, trying to maintain their market share by squeezing out higher cost producers such as the U.S and Canada. Consequently, since 2014 oil prices have dropped by 60% and U.S. production has diminished. The income of nations such as Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Russia depends on their exports and low prices have proven to be troublesome. Furthermore, consenting to production freeze at current levels may seem a fair compromise but not a promising solution. IEA forecasts that global oil surplus will last well into 2017 as demand grows at a slower pace than previously foreseen, particularly in Asia. Meanwhile, not only OPEC members output is at record levels but Russia is also producing close to its maximum capacity, while Libya and Nigeria indicate they want to raise their output for the rest of this year.
Moreover, Iran's full on return earlier this year further affected the market, as the country has been continuously increasing its oil output in an effort to once more claim its place as one of the world's top oil exporters. In any case, Saudi Arabia won’t wish for Iran to expand its production while the country itself is cutting back as that would mean handing over market share to its main regional competitor. It was recently reported that Saudi Arabia may agree to decrease production if only Iran acknowledges freezing its output level. Either way, once OPEC members come to an agreement they won’t want prices to go higher than $55-60 per barrel as they will risk helping higher cost competitors, such as shale oil producers, to get back in the game.
Inevitably, the equilibrium point is fragile for leading oil producers to achieve. On one side, a greedy stance to accomplish higher prices will give the leeway to higher cost producers to step in and on the other side a conservative attitude to defend their market share, flirts with the risk of operating at a loss. The global oil market has faced numerous difficulties, deriving essentially from excess supply. Oil-exporting countries and companies’ profits have deteriorated, increasing their budget deficits and crippling their economy. Additionally, those low prices inevitably lead to layoffs and reductions in new venture spending. But even with all these negative effects, the scenario in which the stagnation of oil major oil producers eventually leads to demand exceeding supply and leads to higher prices is a bit off. So IT IS really down to OPEC’s joined action despite many believing that the organization can’t do much these days.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 26 December 16
DO THE DERIVATIVES MARKETS MAKE COAL PRICES MORE VOLATILE? 59.21% SAY YES, POLL
COALspot.com: The substantial increase or decrease in coal prices within a short period of time has been supported by a number of fundamental drive ...
Friday, 23 December 16
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED 711.1 MMST; DOWN 18.5% Y/Y - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.7 million short ton ...
Thursday, 22 December 16
INDONESIA LACK OF EXPORT TO INDIA THIS WEEK - FERNLEYS
Supramax
While the Atlantic is keeping up with rates, the Pacific has been weaker says Astrup Fernley.
According to Astrup Fernley, backhaul ...
Wednesday, 21 December 16
THE SUPREME COURT DECISION IN OW BUNKERS - WHEN A SALE OF GOODS IS NOT A SALE OF GOODS - LEON ALEXANDER, CLYDE&CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In May 2016 the Supreme Court of England & Wales gave judgment in an OW Bunkers test case entitled "Res Cogitans ...
Wednesday, 21 December 16
CLEANING THE OCEANS FROM PLASTIC - SOPHIE COTZIAS
2016 is coming to a close and it finds us in preparation for the 2017 enforcement of the Ballast Water Treatment Systems. We naturally are in thoug ...
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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