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Wednesday, 05 October 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
 On September 27th the OPEC petroleum and energy ministers arrived in Algeria to attend the International Energy Forum, which brought together producers and consumers to discuss the present energy market conditions. After the closing of the IEF conference, OPEC Ministers held informal talks in an effort to cut a deal that would either freeze or reduce oil supply in pursuit of more stabilized markets and elevated oil prices. The current output OPEC members is more than 33.2 million barrels a day and inventories will grow even higher if no action is taken. It has been argued that oil production needs to be reduced by 1 million barrels a day so that the market rebalances. Likewise, Algeria’s energy minister reasoned that “oil has sufficiently fluctuated on speculation that OPEC and Russia will agree to support oil prices in the midst of oversupply”.
The question that arises is if OPEC members can do the impossible, which for most seems like having a mountain to climb. As discussed, one of the reasons that oil prices are low is due to the oversupplied market with members having had no success in negotiating production cutbacks so far. Major producers, driven by Saudi Arabia have been pumping at near record levels over the last two years, trying to maintain their market share by squeezing out higher cost producers such as the U.S and Canada. Consequently, since 2014 oil prices have dropped by 60% and U.S. production has diminished. The income of nations such as Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Russia depends on their exports and low prices have proven to be troublesome. Furthermore, consenting to production freeze at current levels may seem a fair compromise but not a promising solution. IEA forecasts that global oil surplus will last well into 2017 as demand grows at a slower pace than previously foreseen, particularly in Asia. Meanwhile, not only OPEC members output is at record levels but Russia is also producing close to its maximum capacity, while Libya and Nigeria indicate they want to raise their output for the rest of this year.
Moreover, Iran's full on return earlier this year further affected the market, as the country has been continuously increasing its oil output in an effort to once more claim its place as one of the world's top oil exporters. In any case, Saudi Arabia won’t wish for Iran to expand its production while the country itself is cutting back as that would mean handing over market share to its main regional competitor. It was recently reported that Saudi Arabia may agree to decrease production if only Iran acknowledges freezing its output level. Either way, once OPEC members come to an agreement they won’t want prices to go higher than $55-60 per barrel as they will risk helping higher cost competitors, such as shale oil producers, to get back in the game.
Inevitably, the equilibrium point is fragile for leading oil producers to achieve. On one side, a greedy stance to accomplish higher prices will give the leeway to higher cost producers to step in and on the other side a conservative attitude to defend their market share, flirts with the risk of operating at a loss. The global oil market has faced numerous difficulties, deriving essentially from excess supply. Oil-exporting countries and companies’ profits have deteriorated, increasing their budget deficits and crippling their economy. Additionally, those low prices inevitably lead to layoffs and reductions in new venture spending. But even with all these negative effects, the scenario in which the stagnation of oil major oil producers eventually leads to demand exceeding supply and leads to higher prices is a bit off. So IT IS really down to OPEC’s joined action despite many believing that the organization can’t do much these days.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 05 January 17
UNCHANGED COAL-FIRED TARIFFS PRESSURE CHINA'S GENERATORS - FITCH
COALspot.com: China's decision to keep on-grid electricity prices from coal-fired power unchanged amid higher coal prices will further squeeze ...
Thursday, 05 January 17
CAPE MARKET HAVE KEPT SURPRISINGLY FIRM AND ACTIVE DURING THE CHRISTMAS AND NEW YEAR HOLIDAYS - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
The first week after a slow Christmas break has started off with little activity and softening rates. Not surprisingly, the market is fi ...
Thursday, 05 January 17
COMPARISON OF HONG KONG AND LONDON ARBITRATION - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Whilst London arbitration is the most popular platform for resolution of charterparty disputes, where the parties involved a ...
Wednesday, 04 January 17
INDONESIA'S COAL PRODUCTION IS ESTIMATED TO REACH 434 MILLION TONS IN 2016 EXCEEDED THE GOVERNMENT'S INITIAL TARGET
Indonesia's coal production is estimated to reach 434 million tons in 2016 exceeded the government's initial target. The Ministry of Energy ...
Tuesday, 03 January 17
BENGKULU TO IMPOSE TOUGHER REGULATION FOR UNPROCESSED COAL AND MINERALS EXPORTS IN 2017 - MEDIA
Bengkulu provincial government is planning to impose tougher regulation for export of coal and mineral in 2017. According to liputan6 online portal ...
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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