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Friday, 30 September 16
OPEC CUT SUPPORTS SLOW OIL RECOVERY, NOT STRONG REBOUND - FITCH
 OPEC's oil production target announced this week signals the potential for greater co-ordination among its members, but the target itself is largely symbolic, Fitch Ratings says. The announcement supports our view that oil prices will continue their recovery, but does not make a strong rebound materially more likely.
OPEC members agreed a production target of 32.5m-33.0m b/d at a meeting in Algiers on Wednesday "to accelerate the ongoing drawdown of the stock overhang and bring... rebalancing forward." A high-level committee will recommend member country production levels and there will be "serious and constructive dialogue" with non-member producers on how to stabilize the oil market. OPEC will consider the outcomes at its 30 November meeting in Vienna.
The target implies a production cut of between 240,000 b/d and 740,000 b/d from August levels. This would be the first agreed cut since 2008, and it indicates a slightly greater propensity to co-operate between OPEC's members to support prices.
This reduces downside risk to oil prices and reinforces our expectation that the stabilisation and recovery since the beginning of the year will continue. This is reflected in our forecasts for average prices for Brent and WTI of USD45/b in 2017 and USD55/b in 2018.
Our view incorporates a market that will on average be broadly balanced next year. This reflects demand improvement combined with modest production curtailments outside OPEC, principally in the US (the US Energy Information Administration this month forecast US crude oil production will drop to 8.8m b/d in 2016 from 9.4m b/d in 2015). While the OPEC cut, if agreed, makes a modest deficit more likely next year, this will not be enough to normalise OECD stock levels, which OPEC estimates at 341 million barrels above their five-year average.
More detailed discussions over the next two months will test the willingness of OPEC members to co-operate to reduce production. The envisaged reduction may well be achieved via seasonal falls in production (for example, in the Gulf where changes in domestic consumption patterns traditionally cause a substantial drop in production between August and November).
OPEC's announcement pushed oil prices higher, but they have since retraced some of their gains, and are below the year-to-date peak seen in early summer. Weaker-than-anticipated demand so far in 2016 may limit price increases. The International Energy Agency reduced its forecast for global demand growth by 0.1m b/d earlier in September, and said that momentum would ease further in 2017 "as underlying macroeconomic conditions remain uncertain."
Fitch's long-term expectations for both Brent and WTI of USD65/b reflect our view on the long-run marginal cost of supply. The oil price fall seen since 2014 has been a key driver of sovereign rating changes this year, although the recovery has eased broader macro pressures across emerging markets. Prices of USD40/b-USD50/b allow the majority of Fitch-rated corporate oil producers to cover their cash production costs, and a portion of their sunk costs, but remain below full-cycle costs for most producers.
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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more ...
Friday, 26 July 24
FUELEU MARITME IS COMING. IS YOUR CHARTERPARTY READY? - GARD
With less than six months to implementation of FuelEU Maritime in EU and EEA trades, there has been little published advice regarding how to alloca ...
Thursday, 04 July 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 14% IN JUNE - PTI
The country’s coal production rose by 14.49% to 84.63 million tonne (MT) in June. The country’s coal output was 73.92 MT in June last f ...
Tuesday, 02 July 24
NTPC CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT GROWS 15% IN Q1; DESPATCH RISES 17%
State-owned NTPC on Monday reported a 15 per cent year-on-year increase in the production of coal from captives mines to 9.862 metric million tonne ...
Friday, 28 June 24
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 400,000 MT OF MINIMUM 4000 NCV COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for total 400,000 MT of Low Calorific Value Coal for 5 years starting from July 2024 until ...
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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