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Friday, 30 September 16
OPEC CUT SUPPORTS SLOW OIL RECOVERY, NOT STRONG REBOUND - FITCH
 OPEC's oil production target announced this week signals the potential for greater co-ordination among its members, but the target itself is largely symbolic, Fitch Ratings says. The announcement supports our view that oil prices will continue their recovery, but does not make a strong rebound materially more likely.
OPEC members agreed a production target of 32.5m-33.0m b/d at a meeting in Algiers on Wednesday "to accelerate the ongoing drawdown of the stock overhang and bring... rebalancing forward." A high-level committee will recommend member country production levels and there will be "serious and constructive dialogue" with non-member producers on how to stabilize the oil market. OPEC will consider the outcomes at its 30 November meeting in Vienna.
The target implies a production cut of between 240,000 b/d and 740,000 b/d from August levels. This would be the first agreed cut since 2008, and it indicates a slightly greater propensity to co-operate between OPEC's members to support prices.
This reduces downside risk to oil prices and reinforces our expectation that the stabilisation and recovery since the beginning of the year will continue. This is reflected in our forecasts for average prices for Brent and WTI of USD45/b in 2017 and USD55/b in 2018.
Our view incorporates a market that will on average be broadly balanced next year. This reflects demand improvement combined with modest production curtailments outside OPEC, principally in the US (the US Energy Information Administration this month forecast US crude oil production will drop to 8.8m b/d in 2016 from 9.4m b/d in 2015). While the OPEC cut, if agreed, makes a modest deficit more likely next year, this will not be enough to normalise OECD stock levels, which OPEC estimates at 341 million barrels above their five-year average.
More detailed discussions over the next two months will test the willingness of OPEC members to co-operate to reduce production. The envisaged reduction may well be achieved via seasonal falls in production (for example, in the Gulf where changes in domestic consumption patterns traditionally cause a substantial drop in production between August and November).
OPEC's announcement pushed oil prices higher, but they have since retraced some of their gains, and are below the year-to-date peak seen in early summer. Weaker-than-anticipated demand so far in 2016 may limit price increases. The International Energy Agency reduced its forecast for global demand growth by 0.1m b/d earlier in September, and said that momentum would ease further in 2017 "as underlying macroeconomic conditions remain uncertain."
Fitch's long-term expectations for both Brent and WTI of USD65/b reflect our view on the long-run marginal cost of supply. The oil price fall seen since 2014 has been a key driver of sovereign rating changes this year, although the recovery has eased broader macro pressures across emerging markets. Prices of USD40/b-USD50/b allow the majority of Fitch-rated corporate oil producers to cover their cash production costs, and a portion of their sunk costs, but remain below full-cycle costs for most producers.
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Monday, 24 June 24
PHILIPPINES COAL SUPPLY ENOUGH UNTIL 2030 - PHILSTAR GLOBAL
The country’s existing coal-fired power plants are sufficient to ensure enough base load capacity in the next six years, Energy Secretary Rap ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEXTDECADE, SAUDI ARAMCO SIGN 20-YEAR LNG SUPPLY DEAL - REUTERS
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) provider NextDecade has signed a non-binding agreement with Saudi Aramco 2222.SE to supply 1.2 million tonnes per ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEWBUILDING PRICES CLIMB 3% TO HIGHEST LEVEL IN 16 YEARS - NIELS RASMUSSEN
“Since the start of the year, newbuilding prices have risen 3% to their highest level since 2008. Compared to their most recent low in late 2 ...
Friday, 14 June 24
INDIA TARGETS HIGHER DOMESTIC COAL PRODUCTION, REDUCED IMPORTS: GOVT - REUTERS
India wants to reduce coal imports and increase domestic production, federal coal minister G. Kishan Reddy said on Thursday.
The cou ...
Thursday, 13 June 24
US LNG TO ASIA FOR POWER GENERATION EXPECTED TO CUT EMISSIONS VERSUS COAL - RYSTAD ENERGY
The value-chain emissions of liquified natural gas (LNG) are lower on average than for coal-fired power generation, even when the fuel is shipp ...
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- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The University of Queensland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Planning Commission, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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