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Friday, 30 September 16
OPEC CUT SUPPORTS SLOW OIL RECOVERY, NOT STRONG REBOUND - FITCH
 OPEC's oil production target announced this week signals the potential for greater co-ordination among its members, but the target itself is largely symbolic, Fitch Ratings says. The announcement supports our view that oil prices will continue their recovery, but does not make a strong rebound materially more likely.
OPEC members agreed a production target of 32.5m-33.0m b/d at a meeting in Algiers on Wednesday "to accelerate the ongoing drawdown of the stock overhang and bring... rebalancing forward." A high-level committee will recommend member country production levels and there will be "serious and constructive dialogue" with non-member producers on how to stabilize the oil market. OPEC will consider the outcomes at its 30 November meeting in Vienna.
The target implies a production cut of between 240,000 b/d and 740,000 b/d from August levels. This would be the first agreed cut since 2008, and it indicates a slightly greater propensity to co-operate between OPEC's members to support prices.
This reduces downside risk to oil prices and reinforces our expectation that the stabilisation and recovery since the beginning of the year will continue. This is reflected in our forecasts for average prices for Brent and WTI of USD45/b in 2017 and USD55/b in 2018.
Our view incorporates a market that will on average be broadly balanced next year. This reflects demand improvement combined with modest production curtailments outside OPEC, principally in the US (the US Energy Information Administration this month forecast US crude oil production will drop to 8.8m b/d in 2016 from 9.4m b/d in 2015). While the OPEC cut, if agreed, makes a modest deficit more likely next year, this will not be enough to normalise OECD stock levels, which OPEC estimates at 341 million barrels above their five-year average.
More detailed discussions over the next two months will test the willingness of OPEC members to co-operate to reduce production. The envisaged reduction may well be achieved via seasonal falls in production (for example, in the Gulf where changes in domestic consumption patterns traditionally cause a substantial drop in production between August and November).
OPEC's announcement pushed oil prices higher, but they have since retraced some of their gains, and are below the year-to-date peak seen in early summer. Weaker-than-anticipated demand so far in 2016 may limit price increases. The International Energy Agency reduced its forecast for global demand growth by 0.1m b/d earlier in September, and said that momentum would ease further in 2017 "as underlying macroeconomic conditions remain uncertain."
Fitch's long-term expectations for both Brent and WTI of USD65/b reflect our view on the long-run marginal cost of supply. The oil price fall seen since 2014 has been a key driver of sovereign rating changes this year, although the recovery has eased broader macro pressures across emerging markets. Prices of USD40/b-USD50/b allow the majority of Fitch-rated corporate oil producers to cover their cash production costs, and a portion of their sunk costs, but remain below full-cycle costs for most producers.
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Monday, 24 June 24
PHILIPPINES COAL SUPPLY ENOUGH UNTIL 2030 - PHILSTAR GLOBAL
The country’s existing coal-fired power plants are sufficient to ensure enough base load capacity in the next six years, Energy Secretary Rap ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEXTDECADE, SAUDI ARAMCO SIGN 20-YEAR LNG SUPPLY DEAL - REUTERS
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) provider NextDecade has signed a non-binding agreement with Saudi Aramco 2222.SE to supply 1.2 million tonnes per ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEWBUILDING PRICES CLIMB 3% TO HIGHEST LEVEL IN 16 YEARS - NIELS RASMUSSEN
“Since the start of the year, newbuilding prices have risen 3% to their highest level since 2008. Compared to their most recent low in late 2 ...
Friday, 14 June 24
INDIA TARGETS HIGHER DOMESTIC COAL PRODUCTION, REDUCED IMPORTS: GOVT - REUTERS
India wants to reduce coal imports and increase domestic production, federal coal minister G. Kishan Reddy said on Thursday.
The cou ...
Thursday, 13 June 24
US LNG TO ASIA FOR POWER GENERATION EXPECTED TO CUT EMISSIONS VERSUS COAL - RYSTAD ENERGY
The value-chain emissions of liquified natural gas (LNG) are lower on average than for coal-fired power generation, even when the fuel is shipp ...
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- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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