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Friday, 30 September 16
OPEC CUT SUPPORTS SLOW OIL RECOVERY, NOT STRONG REBOUND - FITCH
 OPEC's oil production target announced this week signals the potential for greater co-ordination among its members, but the target itself is largely symbolic, Fitch Ratings says. The announcement supports our view that oil prices will continue their recovery, but does not make a strong rebound materially more likely.
OPEC members agreed a production target of 32.5m-33.0m b/d at a meeting in Algiers on Wednesday "to accelerate the ongoing drawdown of the stock overhang and bring... rebalancing forward." A high-level committee will recommend member country production levels and there will be "serious and constructive dialogue" with non-member producers on how to stabilize the oil market. OPEC will consider the outcomes at its 30 November meeting in Vienna.
The target implies a production cut of between 240,000 b/d and 740,000 b/d from August levels. This would be the first agreed cut since 2008, and it indicates a slightly greater propensity to co-operate between OPEC's members to support prices.
This reduces downside risk to oil prices and reinforces our expectation that the stabilisation and recovery since the beginning of the year will continue. This is reflected in our forecasts for average prices for Brent and WTI of USD45/b in 2017 and USD55/b in 2018.
Our view incorporates a market that will on average be broadly balanced next year. This reflects demand improvement combined with modest production curtailments outside OPEC, principally in the US (the US Energy Information Administration this month forecast US crude oil production will drop to 8.8m b/d in 2016 from 9.4m b/d in 2015). While the OPEC cut, if agreed, makes a modest deficit more likely next year, this will not be enough to normalise OECD stock levels, which OPEC estimates at 341 million barrels above their five-year average.
More detailed discussions over the next two months will test the willingness of OPEC members to co-operate to reduce production. The envisaged reduction may well be achieved via seasonal falls in production (for example, in the Gulf where changes in domestic consumption patterns traditionally cause a substantial drop in production between August and November).
OPEC's announcement pushed oil prices higher, but they have since retraced some of their gains, and are below the year-to-date peak seen in early summer. Weaker-than-anticipated demand so far in 2016 may limit price increases. The International Energy Agency reduced its forecast for global demand growth by 0.1m b/d earlier in September, and said that momentum would ease further in 2017 "as underlying macroeconomic conditions remain uncertain."
Fitch's long-term expectations for both Brent and WTI of USD65/b reflect our view on the long-run marginal cost of supply. The oil price fall seen since 2014 has been a key driver of sovereign rating changes this year, although the recovery has eased broader macro pressures across emerging markets. Prices of USD40/b-USD50/b allow the majority of Fitch-rated corporate oil producers to cover their cash production costs, and a portion of their sunk costs, but remain below full-cycle costs for most producers.
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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