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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 06 July 16
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS VASSILIOU
After a fairly silent first half of the year in the ship repair sector, we have finally a harmonized workload in the shipyards around the world. Ma ...
Tuesday, 05 July 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING'S RECOVERY NOT SEEN UNTIL 2018 - SGX
SGX freight derivative volumes totaled 36,542 contracts in June (-28% m/m; +52% y/y), while open interest averaged 121,189 contracts during the mon ...
Tuesday, 05 July 16
SPOT COAL INDEXES FOR INDONESIAN COAL CONTINUE TO HOLD FIRM - CS COAL INDEX
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was up by 0.83 percent week over week to averaging $39.98 per ton this past week, sh ...
Monday, 04 July 16
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE CLIMBED 2.30% IN JULY
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Benchmark Price increased in July 2016.
The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia, the r ...
Monday, 04 July 16
BDI ROSE ON STRONGER DEMAND ACROSS ALL VESSEL SEGMENTS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose this past week. The BDI was up 11.16 percent from la ...
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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