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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 01 July 16
BREXIT SET TO HURT SHIPPING IN THE LONG-TERM AS IT WILL TAKE ITS TOLL IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY'S GROWTH - HELLENIC SHIPPING
Setting aside the short-term negative impact of the Brexit, in terms of stock market and currency volatility, it’s more than evident that the ...
Friday, 01 July 16
U.S'S COAL EXPORTS HAVE DECLINED FOR TWELVE QUARTERS IN A ROW - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S, world’s one of the largest coal producers has produced approximately totalled an estimated 13.7 million short t ...
Thursday, 30 June 16
CAPE - THIS WEEK'S FREIGHT AND ACTIVITY LEVEL HAVE KEPT STABLE - FEARNLEYS
Cape
This week’s freight and activity level have kept stable. It is support at the present levels and despite a volatile market the freight ...
Thursday, 30 June 16
OIL PRODUCT TANKERS EARNINGS DECLINE AS STOCKBUILDING SLOWS DOWN - BIMCO
BIMCO’s expectations remain as the oil product tanker fleet continues to grow with earnings at the lowest since Q3 in 2014. But there is stil ...
Wednesday, 29 June 16
THE DRY BULK INDICES, OPPOSITE TO MOST GLOBAL MARKET INDICES, ROSE END OF LAST WEEK
Last week closed off with a massive shockwave for markets across the world following the British referendum, the result of which will mark the begi ...
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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