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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 13 July 16
EIA FORECASTS U.S. COAL EXPORTS TO DECLINE BY 15 MMST IN 2016 AND BY 4 MMST IN 2017
COALspot.com: U.S. coal production in June was 57 million short tons (MMst), a 6 MMst (13%) increase from May and 9 MMst (14%) lower than in June 2 ...
Wednesday, 13 July 16
2015 VS. 2016; THE DRY BULK DEMOLITION DERBY - JOHN N. COTZIAS
In the first half of the year 373 Bulkers and General Cargo ships were scrapped representing 23.8mil tons of dwt carrying capacity.
Comparing ...
Tuesday, 12 July 16
DUE TO LONG HOLIDAYS, CS COAL INDICES HELD AT THE SAME LEVEL OF THE PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was flat week over week to averaging $39.98 per ton this past week.
Due to the ...
Monday, 11 July 16
COAL MARKETS SAW IMPROVED PRICES IN H1 2016 - SGX'S COMMODITIES MID-YEAR REFLECTION
COALspot.com: Coal
Coal markets saw improved prices in H1 2016 with the benchmark coking coal and thermal coal spot prices rising 18% and 25%, re ...
Monday, 11 July 16
THE MAIN SEA FREIGHT INDEX, BDI ROSE FURTHER ON 8 JULY DUE TO STRONG DEMAND FOR PANAMAX SHIPS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose this past week. The BDI was up 3.84 percent from las ...
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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