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Thursday, 28 July 16
FITCH RAISES CORPORATE OIL PRICE ASSUMPTION FOR 2016 TO USD42
 Fitch Ratings has raised the 2016 oil price assumptions it uses when rating energy-sector corporates, but expects record high inventories to slow any further price increases.
We assume Brent and WTI will average USD42 a barrel in 2016, up from our USD35/bbl base case in February. The increase follows evidence that the market will come into balance in the second half of 2016, which has already been reflected in a year-to-date average price of USD41/40 for Brent/WTI.
However, we do not believe that the rapid price recovery seen in the first half of 2016 will continue. The sub-USD30 prices at the start of the year approached cash costs for many producers and were unsustainable in all but the very short term. Prices in the USD40-USD50 range allow most producers to break even on a cash basis, if not to cover sunk costs.
We believe that record high inventories - OECD stocks are still more than 10% higher than normal - and market expectations that US shale production will begin to rebound at prices above USD50, will keep prices below that level until a supply deficit has eroded some of the inventory overhang.
We have therefore left our 2017 and 2018 price assumptions unchanged at USD45 and USD55 respectively. Our long-term expectations for both Brent and WTI are unchanged at USD65, reflecting our view on the long-run marginal cost of supply.
Our natural gas expectations have also changed, with price assumptions for US Henry Hub rising and UK National Balancing Point (NBP) falling. In the US, the market has begun to work through the excess inventory build-up associated with last year's El Nino winter. Slower production growth in key shale plays has also helped. For NBP, increased US gas exports have contributed to a medium-term LNG glut, which we expect to put pressure on international spot prices.
Our Henry Hub price assumptions are USD2.35/mcf in 2016, rising to USD2.75 in 2017, USD3.00 in 2018 and USD3.25 in the long term. For NBP we assume a price of USD5.00/mcf for 2016, USD5.50 in 2017, USD6.00 in 2018 and USD6.50 in the long term.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 21 June 23
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA RECOVER TO PRE-BAN LEVELS - REUTERS
Australian coal sales to China increased in May, as trade resumed between them even as overall coal demand weakened against an uncertain macroecono ...
Monday, 19 June 23
DROUGHT-DEPLETED HYDROPOWER DRIVES CHINA TO TURN TO COAL - REUTERS
China has leant hard on coal-fired power plants as well as wind and solar generators to make up for a shortfall in hydroelectric generation as a re ...
Monday, 19 June 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.2 PCT IN MAY - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted steady growth in May, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of raw coal ...
Wednesday, 24 May 23
AMMONIA-FUELLED BULK CARRIERS WITHIN FIVE YEARS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Within five years, ships powered by clean ammonia could be a feature on the iron ore trade routes between West Australia and East Asia.
A study ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA'S APRIL COAL OUTPUT LEAPS 11% ON YEAR, BUT DEMAND DOWNTURN LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in April jumped 11% from the same month a year earlier, boosted by Beijing’s order to increase supply to ensu ...
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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