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Thursday, 28 July 16
FITCH RAISES CORPORATE OIL PRICE ASSUMPTION FOR 2016 TO USD42
 Fitch Ratings has raised the 2016 oil price assumptions it uses when rating energy-sector corporates, but expects record high inventories to slow any further price increases.
We assume Brent and WTI will average USD42 a barrel in 2016, up from our USD35/bbl base case in February. The increase follows evidence that the market will come into balance in the second half of 2016, which has already been reflected in a year-to-date average price of USD41/40 for Brent/WTI.
However, we do not believe that the rapid price recovery seen in the first half of 2016 will continue. The sub-USD30 prices at the start of the year approached cash costs for many producers and were unsustainable in all but the very short term. Prices in the USD40-USD50 range allow most producers to break even on a cash basis, if not to cover sunk costs.
We believe that record high inventories - OECD stocks are still more than 10% higher than normal - and market expectations that US shale production will begin to rebound at prices above USD50, will keep prices below that level until a supply deficit has eroded some of the inventory overhang.
We have therefore left our 2017 and 2018 price assumptions unchanged at USD45 and USD55 respectively. Our long-term expectations for both Brent and WTI are unchanged at USD65, reflecting our view on the long-run marginal cost of supply.
Our natural gas expectations have also changed, with price assumptions for US Henry Hub rising and UK National Balancing Point (NBP) falling. In the US, the market has begun to work through the excess inventory build-up associated with last year's El Nino winter. Slower production growth in key shale plays has also helped. For NBP, increased US gas exports have contributed to a medium-term LNG glut, which we expect to put pressure on international spot prices.
Our Henry Hub price assumptions are USD2.35/mcf in 2016, rising to USD2.75 in 2017, USD3.00 in 2018 and USD3.25 in the long term. For NBP we assume a price of USD5.00/mcf for 2016, USD5.50 in 2017, USD6.00 in 2018 and USD6.50 in the long term.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Sunday, 10 September 23
CHINA AUGUST COAL IMPORTS OF 44.3 MLN T HIT RECORD - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal consumer, imported 44.3 million metric tons of the fuel last month, customs data showed, the highest amount in an ...
Tuesday, 22 August 23
CHINA'S COAL PRODUCTION LOGS STEADY GROWTH IN JANUARY-JULY: XINHUA
China’s output of raw coal went up 3.6 percent year on year in the first seven months of this year, official data showed.
The ...
Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a litt ...
Wednesday, 09 August 23
COAL TRADE TO RETURN TO 2019 LEVELS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The International Energy Agency’s mid-year Coal Market Update for 2023 brings both positive and concerning news for the global coal industry. ...
Sunday, 23 July 23
ANALYSIS-INDIA'S COAL MINING BET STUMBLES AS WARY BANKS WEIGH RISING RISKS - REUTERS
India’s drive to ramp up coal output to meet growing energy demand is faltering due to banks’ reluctance to finance newly auctioned min ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parliament of New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Planning Commission, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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