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Thursday, 28 July 16
FITCH RAISES CORPORATE OIL PRICE ASSUMPTION FOR 2016 TO USD42
 Fitch Ratings has raised the 2016 oil price assumptions it uses when rating energy-sector corporates, but expects record high inventories to slow any further price increases.
We assume Brent and WTI will average USD42 a barrel in 2016, up from our USD35/bbl base case in February. The increase follows evidence that the market will come into balance in the second half of 2016, which has already been reflected in a year-to-date average price of USD41/40 for Brent/WTI.
However, we do not believe that the rapid price recovery seen in the first half of 2016 will continue. The sub-USD30 prices at the start of the year approached cash costs for many producers and were unsustainable in all but the very short term. Prices in the USD40-USD50 range allow most producers to break even on a cash basis, if not to cover sunk costs.
We believe that record high inventories - OECD stocks are still more than 10% higher than normal - and market expectations that US shale production will begin to rebound at prices above USD50, will keep prices below that level until a supply deficit has eroded some of the inventory overhang.
We have therefore left our 2017 and 2018 price assumptions unchanged at USD45 and USD55 respectively. Our long-term expectations for both Brent and WTI are unchanged at USD65, reflecting our view on the long-run marginal cost of supply.
Our natural gas expectations have also changed, with price assumptions for US Henry Hub rising and UK National Balancing Point (NBP) falling. In the US, the market has begun to work through the excess inventory build-up associated with last year's El Nino winter. Slower production growth in key shale plays has also helped. For NBP, increased US gas exports have contributed to a medium-term LNG glut, which we expect to put pressure on international spot prices.
Our Henry Hub price assumptions are USD2.35/mcf in 2016, rising to USD2.75 in 2017, USD3.00 in 2018 and USD3.25 in the long term. For NBP we assume a price of USD5.00/mcf for 2016, USD5.50 in 2017, USD6.00 in 2018 and USD6.50 in the long term.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA JUGGLES FOUR MAJOR ECONOMIC CHANGES IN 2023 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Change is afoot in China. Economic growth is slowing, while rising political tensions between China and the US, coupled with global supply chain re ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA'S MARCH COAL IMPORTS JUMP TO 3-YEAR HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal imports surged in March to their highest in any month over the past three years as utilities increased purchases on expectations ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
OPEC KEEPS WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, o ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHEAPER SPOT LNG PRICES TEMPT SOME ASIAN BUYERS AMID SUPPLY GAINS - REUTERS
Cheaper spot prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) are luring price-sensitive buyers back in Asia, with China and India recording rising imports i ...
Tuesday, 11 April 23
COAL USE CLIMBS WORLDWIDE DESPITE PROMISES TO SLASH IT - AAP
The burning of coal for electricity, cement, steel and other uses went up in 2022 despite global promises to phase down the fuel that is the bigges ...
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The University of Queensland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Planning Commission, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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