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Wednesday, 22 June 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
 Stagnation- With the BDI stuck in the low 600 points for almost a month now, if we had to choose a word to describe the state of the Dry Bulk freight market at the moment, stagnation is the one that pretty much sums it up.
It seems that at this point of time the dry bulk market has found some sort of balance around OPEX levels for all segments, but even in these cases where a small profit margin is achieved, this is usually too insignificant to allow owners to meet the additional obligations arising from the financing cost that burdens most vessels.
The question that naturally arises is what will be this decisive event that will create the momentum to help drag the market outs if this current stagnation and what sorts of levels can it push the market to.
Irrespective of where the market is, the last two quarters of the year are typically stronger due to the boost of trade volumes of a number of dry cargo commodities at this time of the year. This means that we could well see the index nearing 700 points before the end of the year. Saying that, last year comes as a reminder that history doesn't always repeat itself. While bold predictions were made for the end of 2015, the market not only didn’t move upwards but it actually marked historical , up to that point, lows in many cases, which brings us to the negative scenario for this year end.
The prolonged uncertainty caused by long-term stagnation with minimum profits even for vessels without any CAPEX, has been certainly affecting psychology. Even though there has certainly been an improvement when compared to the first quarter of the year, when lay-up talk had heated up, the fact that a ceiling seems to have been reached for now is definitely removing sentiment support to a degree.
The third scenario is for the index to keep moving around the same levels for an even longer period of time, with the opposing market forces cancelling each other out, allowing the BDI to achieve only minimal adjusting movements around current levels.
Depending on which scenario market players believe in most, a different view is being shaped in regards to second-hand market strategy. From the one side the most optimistic players, taking advantage of the very attractive prices that are still close to all-time historical lows, move aggressively, inspecting vessels and choosing their investments strategically. A very distinctive example of players who seem to trust the market’s dynamics, taking a position in favor of an upcoming improvement are names like these of Oldendorff, Laskaridis and Marmaras who have recently acquired larger tonnage vessels. The same tendency can be found in vessels of smaller tonnage as modern Handy’s attract firm interest from perspective buyers. On the other side, many owners choose the opposite strategy selling their vessels or making them available for sale.
It is indisputable that 2016 has so far proven to be a great window for shopping in all dry bulk sizes. The key question is how long this window will remain open for. Even if the BDI further advances during the upcoming months, it is hard to believe that asset values will increase to last year's levels anytime soon, which in turn probably offers additional time to prospective buyers to carefully monitor available market candidates and even adjust their buying strategy.
By Nassos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 02 May 16
INDIA'S GANGAVARAM PORT SETS ALL INDIA RECORD FOR NON-COKING COAL DISCHARGE
COALspot.com: Gangavaram Port, the deepest and the most modern port in India, has created yet another historical milestone record by discharging 15 ...
Monday, 02 May 16
CS (I) 5000 GAR COAL INDEX CLOSES 0.11% HIGHER, 5700 GAR COAL RISES 0.07% W/W
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin up 0.28 percent week over week to averaging $38.78 per ton on this past Friday, acco ...
Monday, 02 May 16
FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FLAT TO SOFT THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continued to rose this week.
The freight market was ...
Saturday, 30 April 16
40 YEARS OF HANDLING COAL AT THE BTW IN WILHELMSHAVEN UNDER THE RHENUS FLAG
Press Release: The first bulk carrier with coal on board docked at the Bulk Terminal Wilhelmshaven (BTW), which is operated by Rhenus Midgar ...
Friday, 29 April 16
U.S. COAL IMPORTS IN Q4' 15 DECLINED TO 2.7 MMST FROM 3 MMST IN Q3' 15
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 10.3 million short tons (mm ...
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Coal Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
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