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Wednesday, 22 June 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
 Stagnation- With the BDI stuck in the low 600 points for almost a month now, if we had to choose a word to describe the state of the Dry Bulk freight market at the moment, stagnation is the one that pretty much sums it up.
It seems that at this point of time the dry bulk market has found some sort of balance around OPEX levels for all segments, but even in these cases where a small profit margin is achieved, this is usually too insignificant to allow owners to meet the additional obligations arising from the financing cost that burdens most vessels.
The question that naturally arises is what will be this decisive event that will create the momentum to help drag the market outs if this current stagnation and what sorts of levels can it push the market to.
Irrespective of where the market is, the last two quarters of the year are typically stronger due to the boost of trade volumes of a number of dry cargo commodities at this time of the year. This means that we could well see the index nearing 700 points before the end of the year. Saying that, last year comes as a reminder that history doesn't always repeat itself. While bold predictions were made for the end of 2015, the market not only didn’t move upwards but it actually marked historical , up to that point, lows in many cases, which brings us to the negative scenario for this year end.
The prolonged uncertainty caused by long-term stagnation with minimum profits even for vessels without any CAPEX, has been certainly affecting psychology. Even though there has certainly been an improvement when compared to the first quarter of the year, when lay-up talk had heated up, the fact that a ceiling seems to have been reached for now is definitely removing sentiment support to a degree.
The third scenario is for the index to keep moving around the same levels for an even longer period of time, with the opposing market forces cancelling each other out, allowing the BDI to achieve only minimal adjusting movements around current levels.
Depending on which scenario market players believe in most, a different view is being shaped in regards to second-hand market strategy. From the one side the most optimistic players, taking advantage of the very attractive prices that are still close to all-time historical lows, move aggressively, inspecting vessels and choosing their investments strategically. A very distinctive example of players who seem to trust the market’s dynamics, taking a position in favor of an upcoming improvement are names like these of Oldendorff, Laskaridis and Marmaras who have recently acquired larger tonnage vessels. The same tendency can be found in vessels of smaller tonnage as modern Handy’s attract firm interest from perspective buyers. On the other side, many owners choose the opposite strategy selling their vessels or making them available for sale.
It is indisputable that 2016 has so far proven to be a great window for shopping in all dry bulk sizes. The key question is how long this window will remain open for. Even if the BDI further advances during the upcoming months, it is hard to believe that asset values will increase to last year's levels anytime soon, which in turn probably offers additional time to prospective buyers to carefully monitor available market candidates and even adjust their buying strategy.
By Nassos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 05 May 16
DRY BULK MARKET ON REVERSE MODE, AS HOLIDAYS AROUND THE WORLD HURT DEMAND - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market’s recent rally has been put on a temporary hold, as various holidays around the world have put a stop in it. In its lates ...
Wednesday, 04 May 16
COAL IMPORTS: A VOLATILE MATTER OR STILL POWERING DOWN? - CLARKSONS
Chinese coal imports decreased significantly in 2014-15, and so far in 2016 the pace of decline appears to have slowed, with imports even recording ...
Wednesday, 04 May 16
IS THE DRY BULK MARKET OUT OF THE WOODS YET, OR NOT? - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Things are beginning to brighten up in the beleaguered dry bulk market, which is riding on a multi-week rally to find itself around the “psyc ...
Wednesday, 04 May 16
POWER - WEEK: REAL EXAMPLES AND CASE STUDIES
POWER WEEK
7 - 11 November 2016, PARKROYAL on Beach Road Hotel, Singapore
www.power-week.com
Overview
Designed for the global e ...
Tuesday, 03 May 16
HOW TO AVOID THE LATEST CARGO FRAUDS - BIMCO
BIMCO receives regular reports from members around the world about cargo fraud. This week alone we have had two reports of cargoes being fixed (or ...
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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