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Wednesday, 22 June 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
 Stagnation- With the BDI stuck in the low 600 points for almost a month now, if we had to choose a word to describe the state of the Dry Bulk freight market at the moment, stagnation is the one that pretty much sums it up.
It seems that at this point of time the dry bulk market has found some sort of balance around OPEX levels for all segments, but even in these cases where a small profit margin is achieved, this is usually too insignificant to allow owners to meet the additional obligations arising from the financing cost that burdens most vessels.
The question that naturally arises is what will be this decisive event that will create the momentum to help drag the market outs if this current stagnation and what sorts of levels can it push the market to.
Irrespective of where the market is, the last two quarters of the year are typically stronger due to the boost of trade volumes of a number of dry cargo commodities at this time of the year. This means that we could well see the index nearing 700 points before the end of the year. Saying that, last year comes as a reminder that history doesn't always repeat itself. While bold predictions were made for the end of 2015, the market not only didn’t move upwards but it actually marked historical , up to that point, lows in many cases, which brings us to the negative scenario for this year end.
The prolonged uncertainty caused by long-term stagnation with minimum profits even for vessels without any CAPEX, has been certainly affecting psychology. Even though there has certainly been an improvement when compared to the first quarter of the year, when lay-up talk had heated up, the fact that a ceiling seems to have been reached for now is definitely removing sentiment support to a degree.
The third scenario is for the index to keep moving around the same levels for an even longer period of time, with the opposing market forces cancelling each other out, allowing the BDI to achieve only minimal adjusting movements around current levels.
Depending on which scenario market players believe in most, a different view is being shaped in regards to second-hand market strategy. From the one side the most optimistic players, taking advantage of the very attractive prices that are still close to all-time historical lows, move aggressively, inspecting vessels and choosing their investments strategically. A very distinctive example of players who seem to trust the market’s dynamics, taking a position in favor of an upcoming improvement are names like these of Oldendorff, Laskaridis and Marmaras who have recently acquired larger tonnage vessels. The same tendency can be found in vessels of smaller tonnage as modern Handy’s attract firm interest from perspective buyers. On the other side, many owners choose the opposite strategy selling their vessels or making them available for sale.
It is indisputable that 2016 has so far proven to be a great window for shopping in all dry bulk sizes. The key question is how long this window will remain open for. Even if the BDI further advances during the upcoming months, it is hard to believe that asset values will increase to last year's levels anytime soon, which in turn probably offers additional time to prospective buyers to carefully monitor available market candidates and even adjust their buying strategy.
By Nassos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 01 June 16
ZERO SUPPLY TO FUEL GROWTH IN THE DRY BULK MARKET SAYS BIMCO PRESIDENT
The dry bulk market could become profitable again in 2019 – but only if a series of extremely tough and sustained measures are taken by shipo ...
Wednesday, 01 June 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
In another page from this year’s oil drama, oil has, after a series of gains, rebounded to ~$50 / barrel and immediately stopped climbing. &n ...
Tuesday, 31 May 16
CS50 INDONESIA COAL INDEX UP 0.28% COMPARED WITH A WEEK AGO
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was up 0.28 percent week over week to averaging $39.01 per ton this past week, shows ...
Monday, 30 May 16
BORYEONG POWER PLANT TO IMPORT HALF A MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 500,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous Coal T ...
Monday, 30 May 16
BCI ENDING AT 830 POINTS, DOWN 4.6 PER CENT W/W
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline this week. The freight market was weak this past ...
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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