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Wednesday, 22 June 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
 Stagnation- With the BDI stuck in the low 600 points for almost a month now, if we had to choose a word to describe the state of the Dry Bulk freight market at the moment, stagnation is the one that pretty much sums it up.
It seems that at this point of time the dry bulk market has found some sort of balance around OPEX levels for all segments, but even in these cases where a small profit margin is achieved, this is usually too insignificant to allow owners to meet the additional obligations arising from the financing cost that burdens most vessels.
The question that naturally arises is what will be this decisive event that will create the momentum to help drag the market outs if this current stagnation and what sorts of levels can it push the market to.
Irrespective of where the market is, the last two quarters of the year are typically stronger due to the boost of trade volumes of a number of dry cargo commodities at this time of the year. This means that we could well see the index nearing 700 points before the end of the year. Saying that, last year comes as a reminder that history doesn't always repeat itself. While bold predictions were made for the end of 2015, the market not only didn’t move upwards but it actually marked historical , up to that point, lows in many cases, which brings us to the negative scenario for this year end.
The prolonged uncertainty caused by long-term stagnation with minimum profits even for vessels without any CAPEX, has been certainly affecting psychology. Even though there has certainly been an improvement when compared to the first quarter of the year, when lay-up talk had heated up, the fact that a ceiling seems to have been reached for now is definitely removing sentiment support to a degree.
The third scenario is for the index to keep moving around the same levels for an even longer period of time, with the opposing market forces cancelling each other out, allowing the BDI to achieve only minimal adjusting movements around current levels.
Depending on which scenario market players believe in most, a different view is being shaped in regards to second-hand market strategy. From the one side the most optimistic players, taking advantage of the very attractive prices that are still close to all-time historical lows, move aggressively, inspecting vessels and choosing their investments strategically. A very distinctive example of players who seem to trust the market’s dynamics, taking a position in favor of an upcoming improvement are names like these of Oldendorff, Laskaridis and Marmaras who have recently acquired larger tonnage vessels. The same tendency can be found in vessels of smaller tonnage as modern Handy’s attract firm interest from perspective buyers. On the other side, many owners choose the opposite strategy selling their vessels or making them available for sale.
It is indisputable that 2016 has so far proven to be a great window for shopping in all dry bulk sizes. The key question is how long this window will remain open for. Even if the BDI further advances during the upcoming months, it is hard to believe that asset values will increase to last year's levels anytime soon, which in turn probably offers additional time to prospective buyers to carefully monitor available market candidates and even adjust their buying strategy.
By Nassos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 10 June 16
INDONESIAN 6322 GAR COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES TO $51.81 A TON
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Benchmark Price increased in June 2016.
The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia, the regulator ...
Friday, 10 June 16
WEEKLY U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED AN ESTIMATED 12 MMST IN THE WEEK ENDED JUNE 4, UP 4% W/W - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 12 million short tons (mmst ...
Wednesday, 08 June 16
BPI ACHIEVES FINANCIAL CLOSE FOR ITS 2000 MW POWER PROJECT IN CENTRAL JAVA
COALspot.com: PT Bhimasena Power Indonesia (BPI) on June 6th, 2016 Achieves financial close for its 2x1,000 MW power project in Batang Regency, Cen ...
Wednesday, 08 June 16
U.S COAL IMPORTS ARE PROJECTED TO BE 12 MMST IN 2016 AND 11 MMST IN 2017 - EIA
Coal Supply
U.S. coal production in May was 50 million short tons (MMst), a 4 MMst (10%) increase from the previous month but 19 MMst (28%) lower ...
Wednesday, 08 June 16
THE DRY BULK MARKET KEPT MOVING SIDEWAYS LAST WEEK; SECOND HAND PURCHASES MOVING NORTH - INTERMODAL
Once again its Posidonia time and the biannual exhibition takes place during a very warm June here in Athens, as if the performance of the dry bulk ...
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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