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Wednesday, 22 June 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
 Stagnation- With the BDI stuck in the low 600 points for almost a month now, if we had to choose a word to describe the state of the Dry Bulk freight market at the moment, stagnation is the one that pretty much sums it up.
It seems that at this point of time the dry bulk market has found some sort of balance around OPEX levels for all segments, but even in these cases where a small profit margin is achieved, this is usually too insignificant to allow owners to meet the additional obligations arising from the financing cost that burdens most vessels.
The question that naturally arises is what will be this decisive event that will create the momentum to help drag the market outs if this current stagnation and what sorts of levels can it push the market to.
Irrespective of where the market is, the last two quarters of the year are typically stronger due to the boost of trade volumes of a number of dry cargo commodities at this time of the year. This means that we could well see the index nearing 700 points before the end of the year. Saying that, last year comes as a reminder that history doesn't always repeat itself. While bold predictions were made for the end of 2015, the market not only didn’t move upwards but it actually marked historical , up to that point, lows in many cases, which brings us to the negative scenario for this year end.
The prolonged uncertainty caused by long-term stagnation with minimum profits even for vessels without any CAPEX, has been certainly affecting psychology. Even though there has certainly been an improvement when compared to the first quarter of the year, when lay-up talk had heated up, the fact that a ceiling seems to have been reached for now is definitely removing sentiment support to a degree.
The third scenario is for the index to keep moving around the same levels for an even longer period of time, with the opposing market forces cancelling each other out, allowing the BDI to achieve only minimal adjusting movements around current levels.
Depending on which scenario market players believe in most, a different view is being shaped in regards to second-hand market strategy. From the one side the most optimistic players, taking advantage of the very attractive prices that are still close to all-time historical lows, move aggressively, inspecting vessels and choosing their investments strategically. A very distinctive example of players who seem to trust the market’s dynamics, taking a position in favor of an upcoming improvement are names like these of Oldendorff, Laskaridis and Marmaras who have recently acquired larger tonnage vessels. The same tendency can be found in vessels of smaller tonnage as modern Handy’s attract firm interest from perspective buyers. On the other side, many owners choose the opposite strategy selling their vessels or making them available for sale.
It is indisputable that 2016 has so far proven to be a great window for shopping in all dry bulk sizes. The key question is how long this window will remain open for. Even if the BDI further advances during the upcoming months, it is hard to believe that asset values will increase to last year's levels anytime soon, which in turn probably offers additional time to prospective buyers to carefully monitor available market candidates and even adjust their buying strategy.
By Nassos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 07 June 16
CS COAL INDEX ROSE FOR SECOND STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was up 0.38 percent week over week to averaging $39.16 per ton this past week, shows ...
Monday, 06 June 16
BDI GAINED ON A STRONGER DEMAND FOR CAPESIZE SHIPS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose this past week on a stronger demand for Capesize ves ...
Friday, 03 June 16
DRY BULK VESSEL DELIVERIES COULD BE LESS THAN 50 MILLION DWT IN 2016, AS OWNERS DELAY OR CANCEL NEWBUILDING ORDERS
The dry bulk market has been caught between a rock and a hard place over the course of the past couple of years, as on one hand demand has plunged, ...
Friday, 03 June 16
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION SLIDES 1.3% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11.5 million short tons (mm ...
Wednesday, 01 June 16
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS IN APRIL 2016 DECLINED 15% Y/Y; COAL INDIA INCREASED COAL PRICES BY 6.2%
Coal India has approved raising weighted average coal prices by 6.2 per cent over the current price for both regulated and non-regulated sectors.
...
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
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