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Wednesday, 22 June 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
 Stagnation- With the BDI stuck in the low 600 points for almost a month now, if we had to choose a word to describe the state of the Dry Bulk freight market at the moment, stagnation is the one that pretty much sums it up.
It seems that at this point of time the dry bulk market has found some sort of balance around OPEX levels for all segments, but even in these cases where a small profit margin is achieved, this is usually too insignificant to allow owners to meet the additional obligations arising from the financing cost that burdens most vessels.
The question that naturally arises is what will be this decisive event that will create the momentum to help drag the market outs if this current stagnation and what sorts of levels can it push the market to.
Irrespective of where the market is, the last two quarters of the year are typically stronger due to the boost of trade volumes of a number of dry cargo commodities at this time of the year. This means that we could well see the index nearing 700 points before the end of the year. Saying that, last year comes as a reminder that history doesn't always repeat itself. While bold predictions were made for the end of 2015, the market not only didn’t move upwards but it actually marked historical , up to that point, lows in many cases, which brings us to the negative scenario for this year end.
The prolonged uncertainty caused by long-term stagnation with minimum profits even for vessels without any CAPEX, has been certainly affecting psychology. Even though there has certainly been an improvement when compared to the first quarter of the year, when lay-up talk had heated up, the fact that a ceiling seems to have been reached for now is definitely removing sentiment support to a degree.
The third scenario is for the index to keep moving around the same levels for an even longer period of time, with the opposing market forces cancelling each other out, allowing the BDI to achieve only minimal adjusting movements around current levels.
Depending on which scenario market players believe in most, a different view is being shaped in regards to second-hand market strategy. From the one side the most optimistic players, taking advantage of the very attractive prices that are still close to all-time historical lows, move aggressively, inspecting vessels and choosing their investments strategically. A very distinctive example of players who seem to trust the market’s dynamics, taking a position in favor of an upcoming improvement are names like these of Oldendorff, Laskaridis and Marmaras who have recently acquired larger tonnage vessels. The same tendency can be found in vessels of smaller tonnage as modern Handy’s attract firm interest from perspective buyers. On the other side, many owners choose the opposite strategy selling their vessels or making them available for sale.
It is indisputable that 2016 has so far proven to be a great window for shopping in all dry bulk sizes. The key question is how long this window will remain open for. Even if the BDI further advances during the upcoming months, it is hard to believe that asset values will increase to last year's levels anytime soon, which in turn probably offers additional time to prospective buyers to carefully monitor available market candidates and even adjust their buying strategy.
By Nassos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 September 16
EIA FORECASTS U.S. COAL EXPORTS TO DECLINE BY 19 MMST IN 2016 TO 55 MMST
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.3 million sho ...
Thursday, 01 September 16
SUPRAMAX GETTING LEVELS OF MID/HIGHER 7K DELIVERY SINGAPORE FOR TRIPS TO CHINA AND AROUND 9K FOR DIRECTION INDIA - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
This week started slower with London on bank holiday Monday. The south east Asian market seems to have been taking a breather with chart ...
Thursday, 01 September 16
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 2.33 PERCENT MORE COAL IN JULY
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU 1.10 bill ...
Wednesday, 31 August 16
THE DRY BULK MARKET MANAGED TO FIND FURTHER SUPPORT DURING THE LAST DAYS OF THE SUMMER SEASON - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market managed to find further support during the last days of the summer season, with the BDI climbing above 700 last Friday, reachin ...
Tuesday, 30 August 16
THE SUDDEN SURGE IN IRON ORE TRADE HAS CREPT UP ON THE MARKET THIS PAST WEEK - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The sudden surge in Iron ore trade has crept up on the market this past week bringing about a change in the prospects for Capes. Continued increase ...
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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