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Wednesday, 22 June 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
 Stagnation- With the BDI stuck in the low 600 points for almost a month now, if we had to choose a word to describe the state of the Dry Bulk freight market at the moment, stagnation is the one that pretty much sums it up.
It seems that at this point of time the dry bulk market has found some sort of balance around OPEX levels for all segments, but even in these cases where a small profit margin is achieved, this is usually too insignificant to allow owners to meet the additional obligations arising from the financing cost that burdens most vessels.
The question that naturally arises is what will be this decisive event that will create the momentum to help drag the market outs if this current stagnation and what sorts of levels can it push the market to.
Irrespective of where the market is, the last two quarters of the year are typically stronger due to the boost of trade volumes of a number of dry cargo commodities at this time of the year. This means that we could well see the index nearing 700 points before the end of the year. Saying that, last year comes as a reminder that history doesn't always repeat itself. While bold predictions were made for the end of 2015, the market not only didn’t move upwards but it actually marked historical , up to that point, lows in many cases, which brings us to the negative scenario for this year end.
The prolonged uncertainty caused by long-term stagnation with minimum profits even for vessels without any CAPEX, has been certainly affecting psychology. Even though there has certainly been an improvement when compared to the first quarter of the year, when lay-up talk had heated up, the fact that a ceiling seems to have been reached for now is definitely removing sentiment support to a degree.
The third scenario is for the index to keep moving around the same levels for an even longer period of time, with the opposing market forces cancelling each other out, allowing the BDI to achieve only minimal adjusting movements around current levels.
Depending on which scenario market players believe in most, a different view is being shaped in regards to second-hand market strategy. From the one side the most optimistic players, taking advantage of the very attractive prices that are still close to all-time historical lows, move aggressively, inspecting vessels and choosing their investments strategically. A very distinctive example of players who seem to trust the market’s dynamics, taking a position in favor of an upcoming improvement are names like these of Oldendorff, Laskaridis and Marmaras who have recently acquired larger tonnage vessels. The same tendency can be found in vessels of smaller tonnage as modern Handy’s attract firm interest from perspective buyers. On the other side, many owners choose the opposite strategy selling their vessels or making them available for sale.
It is indisputable that 2016 has so far proven to be a great window for shopping in all dry bulk sizes. The key question is how long this window will remain open for. Even if the BDI further advances during the upcoming months, it is hard to believe that asset values will increase to last year's levels anytime soon, which in turn probably offers additional time to prospective buyers to carefully monitor available market candidates and even adjust their buying strategy.
By Nassos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 06 September 16
INDO GOVT. SETS SEPTEMBER COAL REFERENCE PRICE AT US$ 63.93 PER TON; JUMP 20.17% YTD
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal benchmark price hits to its highest level since April 2015. The government declared benchmark prices f ...
Tuesday, 06 September 16
CAPESIZE: THE PACIFIC BASIN WAS THE MAIN REGION KEEPING UP WITH THE POSITIVE SUPPORT - ALLIED
Capesize
Despite some mixed feelings being seen early on in the week, we managed to see a positive week-on-week close on Friday with some positiv ...
Monday, 05 September 16
INDIA BECAME ADARO'S SECOND LARGEST MARKET IN 1H' 16
COALspot.com: The Wara Balangan blend product has been well received by customers in China and India - AI
In the second quarter of 2 ...
Monday, 05 September 16
POOR FREIGHT RATES DESPITE STRONG DEMAND GROWTH FROM CHINA - BIMCO
Demand
The dry bulk commodity imports into and exports out of China we have seen in the first half of 2016 are very positive – and nothing ...
Monday, 05 September 16
FREIGHT RATE FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA IS EXPECTED TO BE FLAT TO SOFT THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose and ending in a positive note this past week except ...
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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