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Wednesday, 22 June 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
 Stagnation- With the BDI stuck in the low 600 points for almost a month now, if we had to choose a word to describe the state of the Dry Bulk freight market at the moment, stagnation is the one that pretty much sums it up.
It seems that at this point of time the dry bulk market has found some sort of balance around OPEX levels for all segments, but even in these cases where a small profit margin is achieved, this is usually too insignificant to allow owners to meet the additional obligations arising from the financing cost that burdens most vessels.
The question that naturally arises is what will be this decisive event that will create the momentum to help drag the market outs if this current stagnation and what sorts of levels can it push the market to.
Irrespective of where the market is, the last two quarters of the year are typically stronger due to the boost of trade volumes of a number of dry cargo commodities at this time of the year. This means that we could well see the index nearing 700 points before the end of the year. Saying that, last year comes as a reminder that history doesn't always repeat itself. While bold predictions were made for the end of 2015, the market not only didn’t move upwards but it actually marked historical , up to that point, lows in many cases, which brings us to the negative scenario for this year end.
The prolonged uncertainty caused by long-term stagnation with minimum profits even for vessels without any CAPEX, has been certainly affecting psychology. Even though there has certainly been an improvement when compared to the first quarter of the year, when lay-up talk had heated up, the fact that a ceiling seems to have been reached for now is definitely removing sentiment support to a degree.
The third scenario is for the index to keep moving around the same levels for an even longer period of time, with the opposing market forces cancelling each other out, allowing the BDI to achieve only minimal adjusting movements around current levels.
Depending on which scenario market players believe in most, a different view is being shaped in regards to second-hand market strategy. From the one side the most optimistic players, taking advantage of the very attractive prices that are still close to all-time historical lows, move aggressively, inspecting vessels and choosing their investments strategically. A very distinctive example of players who seem to trust the market’s dynamics, taking a position in favor of an upcoming improvement are names like these of Oldendorff, Laskaridis and Marmaras who have recently acquired larger tonnage vessels. The same tendency can be found in vessels of smaller tonnage as modern Handy’s attract firm interest from perspective buyers. On the other side, many owners choose the opposite strategy selling their vessels or making them available for sale.
It is indisputable that 2016 has so far proven to be a great window for shopping in all dry bulk sizes. The key question is how long this window will remain open for. Even if the BDI further advances during the upcoming months, it is hard to believe that asset values will increase to last year's levels anytime soon, which in turn probably offers additional time to prospective buyers to carefully monitor available market candidates and even adjust their buying strategy.
By Nassos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 12 September 16
THE CAPE MARKET HAS GAINS ON WEEK; THE CAPE INDEX SETTLING AT 1566 POINTS ON FRIDAY
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose and ending in a positive note this past week. The BD ...
Friday, 09 September 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT DECLINED SLIGHTLY TO 16.1 MMST, EIA SAYS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.1 million short ton ...
Friday, 09 September 16
CAPESIZE: THE SENTIMENT IS SOLID, SAYS FEARNLEYS
Supramax
A quiet start with Labour Day celebrations in the United States leading to very little being reported from the Atlantic basin. Supramaxe ...
Thursday, 08 September 16
U.S. COAL EXPORTS IN JUNE 2016 UP 29% COMPARED TO MAY 2016, SAYS EIA
U.S. coal production in August was 71 million short tons (MMst), which is 6 MMst (9%) higher than in the previous month and 12 MMst (14%) lower tha ...
Wednesday, 07 September 16
WEEKLY MARKET (TANKER) REPORT - INTERMODAL
What goes around comes around! The Shipping industry is infamous for its seasonality and cyclicality and the tanker sector is no exception to these ...
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Coal Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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