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Monday, 11 April 16
ON THE TIGHTROPE, IT CAN BE HARD TO KEEP YOUR BALANCE.... - CLARKSONS
 Today’s headlines often point towards the impact of the demand side on the state of health of the shipping markets. But despite the fact that today’s global orderbook appears less onerous than previously (at 16% of the fleet), capacity levels are still important, and a look at the future of the supply side can provide an idea of just how hard a balancing act the markets still face in today’s demand conditions.
Like The High-Wire?
An indicator combining capacity and demand elements gives an idea of how difficult it might be just to maintain the current supply-demand balance, before the surplus present in many sectors today can even be addressed. The graph shows a ratio which compares the orderbook as a percentage of the fleet to ‘current’ and ‘trend’ rates of demand growth in a selection of sectors (see graph description for details). At a high level, this broadly indicates how many years of demand growth the orderbook to be delivered over the next few years equates to, and how much the supply side will need to otherwise adjust to balance things out. In many cases, even after a sharp slowdown in ordering, this looks like a real high-wire act.
How Hard Does It Look?
The orderbook for oil tankers equates to 18% of the fleet, equivalent to 8 years of ‘current’ demand growth, so there could be some work to be done there to maintain today’s balance. However, it’s the bulkcarrier sector which really illustrates the impact of slower demand growth. Today’s orderbook, 15% of the fleet, equates to 11 years of ‘current’ demand growth. In the boxship sector, relatively faster trade growth (despite an historically slothful 2015) means that today’s orderbook equates to a perhaps more manageable 4 years of ‘current’ trade growth. Other sectors reinforce the impact of demand side issues. The LNG carrier orderbook equates to 14 years of ‘current’ trade expansion (although expectations might be for improved trade growth, and the figure drops to 3 years on the basis of the ‘trend’ rate), and for car carriers the figure stands at 13 years.
Balancing Acts
Of course, in market mechanics, it’s often the supply side which adjusts, and other factors not captured by the ratio used here can lend a hand. Demolition is one obvious factor, with, for example, the relative size of potential bulkcarrier capacity growth suppressed by record levels of demolition this year so far (14.1m dwt in Q1). Delay or cancellation of the orderbook also plays a role: 42% of start year scheduled bulkcarrier deliveries failed to enter the fleet in 2015. Changes in vessel productivity, such as adjustments to operating speeds, can also impact of the absorption of capacity in the future.
Still Walking The Tightrope
Nevertheless, shipping globally still appears to be walking a tightrope in the current demand environment. Today’s orderbook equates to 7 years of ‘current’ seaborne trade growth (a rate of 2.4%), though looks slightly less daunting (5 years) if demand growth was to reach the last decade’s ‘trend’ rate (3.4%). But in current demand conditions, even to maintain the status quo, there’s a significant supply-side balancing act to perform.
Source: Clarksons
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Tuesday, 19 January 16
HAPPY NEW YEAR, COAL PRODUCERS! OR MAYBE NOT - ANDY ROBERTS
To coal producers, 2015 must have seemed far longer than 365 days. From their perspective, as bad as markets were at the beginning of the year, and ...
Tuesday, 19 January 16
COALTRANS ASIA IS RETURNING TO BALI
22nd Coaltrans Asia
Coaltrans Asia is returning to Bali to bring together over 1000 industry decision makers and thought leaders for three day ...
Monday, 18 January 16
INDONESIAN 5700 GAR COAL INDEX ROSE 0.60% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin decline slightly week over week to averaging $39.93 per ton on this past Friday, acc ...
Monday, 18 January 16
BALTIC DRY SHIPPING INDEX DROPS TO 373 POINTS; DECLINE 13% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market dropped this week as the BDI declined further 13 percent to 373 points week over week. The Cape index ...
Monday, 18 January 16
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 42.50 PER TON; UP 1% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose US$ 0.43 (1.02%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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