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Monday, 11 April 16
ON THE TIGHTROPE, IT CAN BE HARD TO KEEP YOUR BALANCE.... - CLARKSONS
 Today’s headlines often point towards the impact of the demand side on the state of health of the shipping markets. But despite the fact that today’s global orderbook appears less onerous than previously (at 16% of the fleet), capacity levels are still important, and a look at the future of the supply side can provide an idea of just how hard a balancing act the markets still face in today’s demand conditions.
Like The High-Wire?
An indicator combining capacity and demand elements gives an idea of how difficult it might be just to maintain the current supply-demand balance, before the surplus present in many sectors today can even be addressed. The graph shows a ratio which compares the orderbook as a percentage of the fleet to ‘current’ and ‘trend’ rates of demand growth in a selection of sectors (see graph description for details). At a high level, this broadly indicates how many years of demand growth the orderbook to be delivered over the next few years equates to, and how much the supply side will need to otherwise adjust to balance things out. In many cases, even after a sharp slowdown in ordering, this looks like a real high-wire act.
How Hard Does It Look?
The orderbook for oil tankers equates to 18% of the fleet, equivalent to 8 years of ‘current’ demand growth, so there could be some work to be done there to maintain today’s balance. However, it’s the bulkcarrier sector which really illustrates the impact of slower demand growth. Today’s orderbook, 15% of the fleet, equates to 11 years of ‘current’ demand growth. In the boxship sector, relatively faster trade growth (despite an historically slothful 2015) means that today’s orderbook equates to a perhaps more manageable 4 years of ‘current’ trade growth. Other sectors reinforce the impact of demand side issues. The LNG carrier orderbook equates to 14 years of ‘current’ trade expansion (although expectations might be for improved trade growth, and the figure drops to 3 years on the basis of the ‘trend’ rate), and for car carriers the figure stands at 13 years.
Balancing Acts
Of course, in market mechanics, it’s often the supply side which adjusts, and other factors not captured by the ratio used here can lend a hand. Demolition is one obvious factor, with, for example, the relative size of potential bulkcarrier capacity growth suppressed by record levels of demolition this year so far (14.1m dwt in Q1). Delay or cancellation of the orderbook also plays a role: 42% of start year scheduled bulkcarrier deliveries failed to enter the fleet in 2015. Changes in vessel productivity, such as adjustments to operating speeds, can also impact of the absorption of capacity in the future.
Still Walking The Tightrope
Nevertheless, shipping globally still appears to be walking a tightrope in the current demand environment. Today’s orderbook equates to 7 years of ‘current’ seaborne trade growth (a rate of 2.4%), though looks slightly less daunting (5 years) if demand growth was to reach the last decade’s ‘trend’ rate (3.4%). But in current demand conditions, even to maintain the status quo, there’s a significant supply-side balancing act to perform.
Source: Clarksons
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Friday, 15 January 16
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS FIRM SLIGHTLY LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month over month and week over week.
According to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's r ...
Friday, 15 January 16
SHIPPING: 2016 STARTED WITH MISERY ACROSS THE BOARD FOR SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As one would have expected, the dry bulk market starter the new year where it left off in 2015, plunging to never seen before depths, as the market ...
Friday, 15 January 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION ROSE ACROSS ALL BASINS: EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.4 million shor ...
Thursday, 14 January 16
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q3 DELIVERY CLOSED $5.90 LOWER THAN Q1 PRICE
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap up month over month and week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB Richards Bay Coal ...
Wednesday, 13 January 16
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED BY 109 MMST IN 2015; COAL EXPORTS DECREASED 21% Y-O-Y
COALspot.com: U.S. coal production declined by 109 million short tons (MMst) (11%) in 2015, the largest decline ever recorded, says EIA.
The 2 ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The University of Queensland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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