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Monday, 11 April 16
ON THE TIGHTROPE, IT CAN BE HARD TO KEEP YOUR BALANCE.... - CLARKSONS
 Today’s headlines often point towards the impact of the demand side on the state of health of the shipping markets. But despite the fact that today’s global orderbook appears less onerous than previously (at 16% of the fleet), capacity levels are still important, and a look at the future of the supply side can provide an idea of just how hard a balancing act the markets still face in today’s demand conditions.
Like The High-Wire?
An indicator combining capacity and demand elements gives an idea of how difficult it might be just to maintain the current supply-demand balance, before the surplus present in many sectors today can even be addressed. The graph shows a ratio which compares the orderbook as a percentage of the fleet to ‘current’ and ‘trend’ rates of demand growth in a selection of sectors (see graph description for details). At a high level, this broadly indicates how many years of demand growth the orderbook to be delivered over the next few years equates to, and how much the supply side will need to otherwise adjust to balance things out. In many cases, even after a sharp slowdown in ordering, this looks like a real high-wire act.
How Hard Does It Look?
The orderbook for oil tankers equates to 18% of the fleet, equivalent to 8 years of ‘current’ demand growth, so there could be some work to be done there to maintain today’s balance. However, it’s the bulkcarrier sector which really illustrates the impact of slower demand growth. Today’s orderbook, 15% of the fleet, equates to 11 years of ‘current’ demand growth. In the boxship sector, relatively faster trade growth (despite an historically slothful 2015) means that today’s orderbook equates to a perhaps more manageable 4 years of ‘current’ trade growth. Other sectors reinforce the impact of demand side issues. The LNG carrier orderbook equates to 14 years of ‘current’ trade expansion (although expectations might be for improved trade growth, and the figure drops to 3 years on the basis of the ‘trend’ rate), and for car carriers the figure stands at 13 years.
Balancing Acts
Of course, in market mechanics, it’s often the supply side which adjusts, and other factors not captured by the ratio used here can lend a hand. Demolition is one obvious factor, with, for example, the relative size of potential bulkcarrier capacity growth suppressed by record levels of demolition this year so far (14.1m dwt in Q1). Delay or cancellation of the orderbook also plays a role: 42% of start year scheduled bulkcarrier deliveries failed to enter the fleet in 2015. Changes in vessel productivity, such as adjustments to operating speeds, can also impact of the absorption of capacity in the future.
Still Walking The Tightrope
Nevertheless, shipping globally still appears to be walking a tightrope in the current demand environment. Today’s orderbook equates to 7 years of ‘current’ seaborne trade growth (a rate of 2.4%), though looks slightly less daunting (5 years) if demand growth was to reach the last decade’s ‘trend’ rate (3.4%). But in current demand conditions, even to maintain the status quo, there’s a significant supply-side balancing act to perform.
Source: Clarksons
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Tuesday, 26 January 16
OUTLOOK FOR GLOBAL OIL MARKETS - OPEC SECRETARY GENERAL
Opening address by HE Abdalla S. El-Badri, OPEC Secretary General, at the Chatham House Conference: Middle East and North Africa Energy 2016, Theme ...
Monday, 25 January 16
5700 GAR COAL INDEX CLOSED $ 50.08 PER TON, $0.20 LOWER FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin decline 1.35 percent week over week to averaging $39.39 per ton on this past Friday, ...
Monday, 25 January 16
SHOULD A DEFAULTING PARTY BE ENTITLED TO AN INNOCENT PARTY'S SAVING, FOLLOWING THEIR BREACH OF CONTRACT? - THE NEW FLAMENCO REVISITED
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
This case was addressed by the club in our of January 2015, when the High Court decision became available. The background ...
Monday, 25 January 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING: A MISERABLE START TO A NEW YEAR, WHERE THE MARKET STRUGGLES TO GROW AT ALL - BIMCO
The global production of steel dropped in 2015 compared to 2014, to a larger extent outside China, as China exported its surplus of steel to destin ...
Sunday, 24 January 16
PANAMAX MARKET WEAKENS ACROSS THE BOARD
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index, which gauges the cost of shipping dry bulk including iron ore, cement, grain, coal and fertiliser, fell ninetee ...
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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