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Monday, 11 April 16
ON THE TIGHTROPE, IT CAN BE HARD TO KEEP YOUR BALANCE.... - CLARKSONS
 Today’s headlines often point towards the impact of the demand side on the state of health of the shipping markets. But despite the fact that today’s global orderbook appears less onerous than previously (at 16% of the fleet), capacity levels are still important, and a look at the future of the supply side can provide an idea of just how hard a balancing act the markets still face in today’s demand conditions.
Like The High-Wire?
An indicator combining capacity and demand elements gives an idea of how difficult it might be just to maintain the current supply-demand balance, before the surplus present in many sectors today can even be addressed. The graph shows a ratio which compares the orderbook as a percentage of the fleet to ‘current’ and ‘trend’ rates of demand growth in a selection of sectors (see graph description for details). At a high level, this broadly indicates how many years of demand growth the orderbook to be delivered over the next few years equates to, and how much the supply side will need to otherwise adjust to balance things out. In many cases, even after a sharp slowdown in ordering, this looks like a real high-wire act.
How Hard Does It Look?
The orderbook for oil tankers equates to 18% of the fleet, equivalent to 8 years of ‘current’ demand growth, so there could be some work to be done there to maintain today’s balance. However, it’s the bulkcarrier sector which really illustrates the impact of slower demand growth. Today’s orderbook, 15% of the fleet, equates to 11 years of ‘current’ demand growth. In the boxship sector, relatively faster trade growth (despite an historically slothful 2015) means that today’s orderbook equates to a perhaps more manageable 4 years of ‘current’ trade growth. Other sectors reinforce the impact of demand side issues. The LNG carrier orderbook equates to 14 years of ‘current’ trade expansion (although expectations might be for improved trade growth, and the figure drops to 3 years on the basis of the ‘trend’ rate), and for car carriers the figure stands at 13 years.
Balancing Acts
Of course, in market mechanics, it’s often the supply side which adjusts, and other factors not captured by the ratio used here can lend a hand. Demolition is one obvious factor, with, for example, the relative size of potential bulkcarrier capacity growth suppressed by record levels of demolition this year so far (14.1m dwt in Q1). Delay or cancellation of the orderbook also plays a role: 42% of start year scheduled bulkcarrier deliveries failed to enter the fleet in 2015. Changes in vessel productivity, such as adjustments to operating speeds, can also impact of the absorption of capacity in the future.
Still Walking The Tightrope
Nevertheless, shipping globally still appears to be walking a tightrope in the current demand environment. Today’s orderbook equates to 7 years of ‘current’ seaborne trade growth (a rate of 2.4%), though looks slightly less daunting (5 years) if demand growth was to reach the last decade’s ‘trend’ rate (3.4%). But in current demand conditions, even to maintain the status quo, there’s a significant supply-side balancing act to perform.
Source: Clarksons
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Friday, 08 April 16
COASTAL ENERGEN CROSSES GENERATION OF 1068 MW AND EXPORT OF 1004 MW FROM ITS 1200 MW IPP
COALspot.com: Coal & Oil (C&O) Group, an India centric Energy & Infrastructure company announced that their Coastal Energen' ...
Friday, 08 April 16
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATES DIP 5.4% TO 11 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11 million short ...
Friday, 08 April 16
MINISTER OF ENERGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES OF INDONESIA TO ISSUE REGULATION TO GUARANTEE THE COAL SUPPLY TO ITS 35K POWER PLANT PROJECTS
COALspot.com: In order to guarantee the supply of coal for 35,000 megawatt (mw) coal based power plants ( still in planning stage), the Minister of ...
Thursday, 07 April 16
CHINA STEEL CAPACITY CUTS FACE SOCIAL, FINANCIAL HURDLES - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings says today that the Chinese government's supply-side reform of the steel sector faces immense social and financial challenges. Th ...
Thursday, 07 April 16
PANAMAX RATES ARE FIRMING IN BOTH HEMISHEPHERES - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
With a great volume our of west Australia, rates were finally moving to upper 3's. and stabilizing towards the middle of the week in ...
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Coal Association
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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