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Monday, 11 April 16
ON THE TIGHTROPE, IT CAN BE HARD TO KEEP YOUR BALANCE.... - CLARKSONS
 Today’s headlines often point towards the impact of the demand side on the state of health of the shipping markets. But despite the fact that today’s global orderbook appears less onerous than previously (at 16% of the fleet), capacity levels are still important, and a look at the future of the supply side can provide an idea of just how hard a balancing act the markets still face in today’s demand conditions.
Like The High-Wire?
An indicator combining capacity and demand elements gives an idea of how difficult it might be just to maintain the current supply-demand balance, before the surplus present in many sectors today can even be addressed. The graph shows a ratio which compares the orderbook as a percentage of the fleet to ‘current’ and ‘trend’ rates of demand growth in a selection of sectors (see graph description for details). At a high level, this broadly indicates how many years of demand growth the orderbook to be delivered over the next few years equates to, and how much the supply side will need to otherwise adjust to balance things out. In many cases, even after a sharp slowdown in ordering, this looks like a real high-wire act.
How Hard Does It Look?
The orderbook for oil tankers equates to 18% of the fleet, equivalent to 8 years of ‘current’ demand growth, so there could be some work to be done there to maintain today’s balance. However, it’s the bulkcarrier sector which really illustrates the impact of slower demand growth. Today’s orderbook, 15% of the fleet, equates to 11 years of ‘current’ demand growth. In the boxship sector, relatively faster trade growth (despite an historically slothful 2015) means that today’s orderbook equates to a perhaps more manageable 4 years of ‘current’ trade growth. Other sectors reinforce the impact of demand side issues. The LNG carrier orderbook equates to 14 years of ‘current’ trade expansion (although expectations might be for improved trade growth, and the figure drops to 3 years on the basis of the ‘trend’ rate), and for car carriers the figure stands at 13 years.
Balancing Acts
Of course, in market mechanics, it’s often the supply side which adjusts, and other factors not captured by the ratio used here can lend a hand. Demolition is one obvious factor, with, for example, the relative size of potential bulkcarrier capacity growth suppressed by record levels of demolition this year so far (14.1m dwt in Q1). Delay or cancellation of the orderbook also plays a role: 42% of start year scheduled bulkcarrier deliveries failed to enter the fleet in 2015. Changes in vessel productivity, such as adjustments to operating speeds, can also impact of the absorption of capacity in the future.
Still Walking The Tightrope
Nevertheless, shipping globally still appears to be walking a tightrope in the current demand environment. Today’s orderbook equates to 7 years of ‘current’ seaborne trade growth (a rate of 2.4%), though looks slightly less daunting (5 years) if demand growth was to reach the last decade’s ‘trend’ rate (3.4%). But in current demand conditions, even to maintain the status quo, there’s a significant supply-side balancing act to perform.
Source: Clarksons
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Friday, 15 April 16
U.S WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT FALLS ACROSS ALL BASINS - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 10.2 million short tons (mm ...
Thursday, 14 April 16
AUSTRALIAN MINING SERVICES SECTOR SQUEEZED BY MINERS' COST CUTS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings says mining services companies' revenues and margins will remain under pressure as miners continue to focus on reducing costs ami ...
Thursday, 14 April 16
DRY BULKERS' PRICES COULD BE HEADING UPWARDS AS BUYERS' APPETITE INCREASES - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Investment sentiment is beginning to trend upwards in the market for second hand dry bulk carriers. According to the latest weekly report from ship ...
Wednesday, 13 April 16
U.S COAL PRODUCTION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY 16 PER CENT IN 2016; THE LARGEST ANNUAL PERCENTAGE DECLINE SINCE 1958 - EIA
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production in March 2016 was 52 million short tons (MMst), a 2 MMst (4%) decrease from the previous month and 29 MMst ...
Tuesday, 12 April 16
INDONESIA COAL BENCHMARK PRICE INCREASES FOR SECOND STRAIGHT MONTH
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Benchmark Price Increases For Second Straight Month in April 2016.
The Director General of Mine ...
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
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