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Monday, 11 April 16
ON THE TIGHTROPE, IT CAN BE HARD TO KEEP YOUR BALANCE.... - CLARKSONS
 Today’s headlines often point towards the impact of the demand side on the state of health of the shipping markets. But despite the fact that today’s global orderbook appears less onerous than previously (at 16% of the fleet), capacity levels are still important, and a look at the future of the supply side can provide an idea of just how hard a balancing act the markets still face in today’s demand conditions.
Like The High-Wire?
An indicator combining capacity and demand elements gives an idea of how difficult it might be just to maintain the current supply-demand balance, before the surplus present in many sectors today can even be addressed. The graph shows a ratio which compares the orderbook as a percentage of the fleet to ‘current’ and ‘trend’ rates of demand growth in a selection of sectors (see graph description for details). At a high level, this broadly indicates how many years of demand growth the orderbook to be delivered over the next few years equates to, and how much the supply side will need to otherwise adjust to balance things out. In many cases, even after a sharp slowdown in ordering, this looks like a real high-wire act.
How Hard Does It Look?
The orderbook for oil tankers equates to 18% of the fleet, equivalent to 8 years of ‘current’ demand growth, so there could be some work to be done there to maintain today’s balance. However, it’s the bulkcarrier sector which really illustrates the impact of slower demand growth. Today’s orderbook, 15% of the fleet, equates to 11 years of ‘current’ demand growth. In the boxship sector, relatively faster trade growth (despite an historically slothful 2015) means that today’s orderbook equates to a perhaps more manageable 4 years of ‘current’ trade growth. Other sectors reinforce the impact of demand side issues. The LNG carrier orderbook equates to 14 years of ‘current’ trade expansion (although expectations might be for improved trade growth, and the figure drops to 3 years on the basis of the ‘trend’ rate), and for car carriers the figure stands at 13 years.
Balancing Acts
Of course, in market mechanics, it’s often the supply side which adjusts, and other factors not captured by the ratio used here can lend a hand. Demolition is one obvious factor, with, for example, the relative size of potential bulkcarrier capacity growth suppressed by record levels of demolition this year so far (14.1m dwt in Q1). Delay or cancellation of the orderbook also plays a role: 42% of start year scheduled bulkcarrier deliveries failed to enter the fleet in 2015. Changes in vessel productivity, such as adjustments to operating speeds, can also impact of the absorption of capacity in the future.
Still Walking The Tightrope
Nevertheless, shipping globally still appears to be walking a tightrope in the current demand environment. Today’s orderbook equates to 7 years of ‘current’ seaborne trade growth (a rate of 2.4%), though looks slightly less daunting (5 years) if demand growth was to reach the last decade’s ‘trend’ rate (3.4%). But in current demand conditions, even to maintain the status quo, there’s a significant supply-side balancing act to perform.
Source: Clarksons
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Tuesday, 12 April 16
NO FURTHER SIGNIFICANT COAL PRICE DECLINES IN THE FUTURE - FITCH
COALspot.com: Fitch does not expect further significant coal price declines because producers sector-wide are suffering losses while China and Indo ...
Monday, 11 April 16
WEEKLY CS (I) COAL INDEX FOR 5700 GAR COAL UP 0.03 CENTS, OR ABOUT 0.06 PERCENT, TO $48.21 A TON
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin fell 0.15 percent week over week to averaging $38.82 per ton on this past Friday, ac ...
Monday, 11 April 16
COAL IS NOT THE ENEMY TO FIGHT - ANDREA CLAVARINO, ASSOCARBONI
COALspot.com: “Coal is not the enemy to fight and electricity production from coal has an environmental impact in its lifecycle similar to na ...
Monday, 11 April 16
FORTY INDIAN COAL IMPORTERS UNDER THE DRI SCANNER FOR OVER-INVOICING : HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The Finance Ministry and the Directorate of Revenue Intelligence (DRI) of India are said to have stepped up investigations into the alleged over-in ...
Monday, 11 April 16
BDI ROSE TO ITS HIGHEST LEVEL IN FOUR MONTHS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continued to rose this week.
The freight market was ...
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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