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Wednesday, 06 April 16
HOW LONG SHIPPING CRISIS WILL BE; WHEN SHOULD OWNERS EXPECT THE BULK CARRIERS TO BECOME PROFITABLE? - INTERMODAL
 It is the consensus that dry bulk shipping has been in a crisis for quite some time now. Bulk carrier values are at historical low levels, therefore, painfully for many owners, we have replied to the question how deep this crisis is. It can't go much deeper. The question now is how long this crisis will be and when should owners expect the bulk carriers to become profitable again and their assets to regain their value (or part thereof).
The answer to that question is 'as soon as the demand for seaborne trade will consistently outpace the supply of vessels'. According to IMF data in 2015, global economic activity remained subdued. Growth in emerging market and developing economies (accounting for over 70 percent of global growth, and the main drivers of dry bulk shipping) declined for the fifth consecutive year, while a modest recovery continued in advanced economies. On top of that, the fleet has grown too much over the last decade and we need to see the fleet contract in order to meet the ailing demand growth.
Looking at some data on the ship supply side, we can see that year-to-date 17.82mil tons of dwt have been delivered against 14.48mil tons of deadweight that have sent for demolition.
In other words there have been fifty more deliveries than demolitions, these are mainly in the Handysize and Supramax/Ultramax segments. On paper, the fleet is still growing and the weak demand is bringing the utilization rate lower and lower. In reality, although this is temporary, the fleet has contracted since many of the new deliveries haven't started trading yet and a number of a few hundreds of ships have been laid up.
Another fact that we derive from the fleet data is how many vessels that were originally contracted for delivery in 2015 have actually been delivered and how many contracted for 2016 have been postponed to be delivered in 2017 and 2018.
In January 2015 the orderbook stood at 1000 bulk carriers for delivery during 2015 whilst 617 ships have been actually delivered; an almost 40percent rate of slippage. That was obviously not enough to balance the market since the fleet grew by 2.3percent whereas the seaborne trade growth was negative.
In January 2016, the orderbook for 2016 stood also at about 1000 vessels (including a number of vessels postponed from 2015) whilst today it's about 700 vessels with only 211 deliveries so far; the difference being vessels pushed back in 2017 or 2018 where the respective orderbooks have increased accordingly, about 300 vessels.
Looking forward, according to IMF, growth in emerging market and developing economies is projected to increase from 4 percent in 2015 — the lowest since the 2008–09 financial crisis—to 4.3 and 4.7 percent in 2016 and 2017, respectively. This means that demand will pick up over the next two years and if the supply keeps on its rationalization consistently, the answer to the “how long?” question could well be “earlier than the consensus”.
By Theodore Ntalakos
Newbuilding / SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 07 April 16
PANAMAX RATES ARE FIRMING IN BOTH HEMISHEPHERES - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
With a great volume our of west Australia, rates were finally moving to upper 3's. and stabilizing towards the middle of the week in ...
Thursday, 07 April 16
BIMCO AND GIIGNL PUBLISH A GROUNDBREAKING VOYAGE CHARTER PARTY FOR LNG TRADE
BIMCO and the International Group of Liquefied Natural Gas Importers (GIIGNL) have today jointly issued the first definitive voyage charter party & ...
Tuesday, 05 April 16
DRY BULK REVISITS 1980S LOWS AND FACES UNCERTAIN LONGER TERM OUTLOOK - MSI | HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
With the market near bottom, attention is turning to the length of the downturn, the effect on asset values and the impact of broader demand side c ...
Monday, 04 April 16
THE LOADING, AND SUBSEQUENT DISCHARGE, OF UNSAFE NICKEL ORE - ALL TIME TO 'COUNT' - THE STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a recent, published, London arbitration award the English tribunal has held that all time lost as a result of loading, ...
Monday, 04 April 16
INDONESIA CS57 COAL INDEX SLIDES SLIGHTLY WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin fell 0.07 percent week over week to averaging $38.88 per ton on this past Friday, ac ...
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Planning Commission, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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