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Wednesday, 06 April 16
HOW LONG SHIPPING CRISIS WILL BE; WHEN SHOULD OWNERS EXPECT THE BULK CARRIERS TO BECOME PROFITABLE? - INTERMODAL
 It is the consensus that dry bulk shipping has been in a crisis for quite some time now. Bulk carrier values are at historical low levels, therefore, painfully for many owners, we have replied to the question how deep this crisis is. It can't go much deeper. The question now is how long this crisis will be and when should owners expect the bulk carriers to become profitable again and their assets to regain their value (or part thereof).
The answer to that question is 'as soon as the demand for seaborne trade will consistently outpace the supply of vessels'. According to IMF data in 2015, global economic activity remained subdued. Growth in emerging market and developing economies (accounting for over 70 percent of global growth, and the main drivers of dry bulk shipping) declined for the fifth consecutive year, while a modest recovery continued in advanced economies. On top of that, the fleet has grown too much over the last decade and we need to see the fleet contract in order to meet the ailing demand growth.
Looking at some data on the ship supply side, we can see that year-to-date 17.82mil tons of dwt have been delivered against 14.48mil tons of deadweight that have sent for demolition.
In other words there have been fifty more deliveries than demolitions, these are mainly in the Handysize and Supramax/Ultramax segments. On paper, the fleet is still growing and the weak demand is bringing the utilization rate lower and lower. In reality, although this is temporary, the fleet has contracted since many of the new deliveries haven't started trading yet and a number of a few hundreds of ships have been laid up.
Another fact that we derive from the fleet data is how many vessels that were originally contracted for delivery in 2015 have actually been delivered and how many contracted for 2016 have been postponed to be delivered in 2017 and 2018.
In January 2015 the orderbook stood at 1000 bulk carriers for delivery during 2015 whilst 617 ships have been actually delivered; an almost 40percent rate of slippage. That was obviously not enough to balance the market since the fleet grew by 2.3percent whereas the seaborne trade growth was negative.
In January 2016, the orderbook for 2016 stood also at about 1000 vessels (including a number of vessels postponed from 2015) whilst today it's about 700 vessels with only 211 deliveries so far; the difference being vessels pushed back in 2017 or 2018 where the respective orderbooks have increased accordingly, about 300 vessels.
Looking forward, according to IMF, growth in emerging market and developing economies is projected to increase from 4 percent in 2015 — the lowest since the 2008–09 financial crisis—to 4.3 and 4.7 percent in 2016 and 2017, respectively. This means that demand will pick up over the next two years and if the supply keeps on its rationalization consistently, the answer to the “how long?” question could well be “earlier than the consensus”.
By Theodore Ntalakos
Newbuilding / SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 12 April 16
NO FURTHER SIGNIFICANT COAL PRICE DECLINES IN THE FUTURE - FITCH
COALspot.com: Fitch does not expect further significant coal price declines because producers sector-wide are suffering losses while China and Indo ...
Monday, 11 April 16
ON THE TIGHTROPE, IT CAN BE HARD TO KEEP YOUR BALANCE.... - CLARKSONS
Today’s headlines often point towards the impact of the demand side on the state of health of the shipping markets. But despite the fact that ...
Monday, 11 April 16
WEEKLY CS (I) COAL INDEX FOR 5700 GAR COAL UP 0.03 CENTS, OR ABOUT 0.06 PERCENT, TO $48.21 A TON
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin fell 0.15 percent week over week to averaging $38.82 per ton on this past Friday, ac ...
Monday, 11 April 16
COAL IS NOT THE ENEMY TO FIGHT - ANDREA CLAVARINO, ASSOCARBONI
COALspot.com: “Coal is not the enemy to fight and electricity production from coal has an environmental impact in its lifecycle similar to na ...
Monday, 11 April 16
FORTY INDIAN COAL IMPORTERS UNDER THE DRI SCANNER FOR OVER-INVOICING : HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The Finance Ministry and the Directorate of Revenue Intelligence (DRI) of India are said to have stepped up investigations into the alleged over-in ...
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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