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Wednesday, 06 April 16
HOW LONG SHIPPING CRISIS WILL BE; WHEN SHOULD OWNERS EXPECT THE BULK CARRIERS TO BECOME PROFITABLE? - INTERMODAL
 It is the consensus that dry bulk shipping has been in a crisis for quite some time now. Bulk carrier values are at historical low levels, therefore, painfully for many owners, we have replied to the question how deep this crisis is. It can't go much deeper. The question now is how long this crisis will be and when should owners expect the bulk carriers to become profitable again and their assets to regain their value (or part thereof).
The answer to that question is 'as soon as the demand for seaborne trade will consistently outpace the supply of vessels'. According to IMF data in 2015, global economic activity remained subdued. Growth in emerging market and developing economies (accounting for over 70 percent of global growth, and the main drivers of dry bulk shipping) declined for the fifth consecutive year, while a modest recovery continued in advanced economies. On top of that, the fleet has grown too much over the last decade and we need to see the fleet contract in order to meet the ailing demand growth.
Looking at some data on the ship supply side, we can see that year-to-date 17.82mil tons of dwt have been delivered against 14.48mil tons of deadweight that have sent for demolition.
In other words there have been fifty more deliveries than demolitions, these are mainly in the Handysize and Supramax/Ultramax segments. On paper, the fleet is still growing and the weak demand is bringing the utilization rate lower and lower. In reality, although this is temporary, the fleet has contracted since many of the new deliveries haven't started trading yet and a number of a few hundreds of ships have been laid up.
Another fact that we derive from the fleet data is how many vessels that were originally contracted for delivery in 2015 have actually been delivered and how many contracted for 2016 have been postponed to be delivered in 2017 and 2018.
In January 2015 the orderbook stood at 1000 bulk carriers for delivery during 2015 whilst 617 ships have been actually delivered; an almost 40percent rate of slippage. That was obviously not enough to balance the market since the fleet grew by 2.3percent whereas the seaborne trade growth was negative.
In January 2016, the orderbook for 2016 stood also at about 1000 vessels (including a number of vessels postponed from 2015) whilst today it's about 700 vessels with only 211 deliveries so far; the difference being vessels pushed back in 2017 or 2018 where the respective orderbooks have increased accordingly, about 300 vessels.
Looking forward, according to IMF, growth in emerging market and developing economies is projected to increase from 4 percent in 2015 — the lowest since the 2008–09 financial crisis—to 4.3 and 4.7 percent in 2016 and 2017, respectively. This means that demand will pick up over the next two years and if the supply keeps on its rationalization consistently, the answer to the “how long?” question could well be “earlier than the consensus”.
By Theodore Ntalakos
Newbuilding / SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 11 April 16
BDI ROSE TO ITS HIGHEST LEVEL IN FOUR MONTHS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continued to rose this week.
The freight market was ...
Friday, 08 April 16
COASTAL ENERGEN CROSSES GENERATION OF 1068 MW AND EXPORT OF 1004 MW FROM ITS 1200 MW IPP
COALspot.com: Coal & Oil (C&O) Group, an India centric Energy & Infrastructure company announced that their Coastal Energen' ...
Friday, 08 April 16
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATES DIP 5.4% TO 11 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11 million short ...
Friday, 08 April 16
MINISTER OF ENERGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES OF INDONESIA TO ISSUE REGULATION TO GUARANTEE THE COAL SUPPLY TO ITS 35K POWER PLANT PROJECTS
COALspot.com: In order to guarantee the supply of coal for 35,000 megawatt (mw) coal based power plants ( still in planning stage), the Minister of ...
Thursday, 07 April 16
CHINA STEEL CAPACITY CUTS FACE SOCIAL, FINANCIAL HURDLES - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings says today that the Chinese government's supply-side reform of the steel sector faces immense social and financial challenges. Th ...
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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