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Tuesday, 05 April 16
DRY BULK REVISITS 1980S LOWS AND FACES UNCERTAIN LONGER TERM OUTLOOK - MSI | HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 With the market near bottom, attention is turning to the length of the downturn, the effect on asset values and the impact of broader demand side changes.
April 4, 2016. In terms of annual average fleet employment rates, the dry bulk market has now dropped to levels last seen over 20 years ago in 1992, according to the latest quarterly dry bulk market forecast from MSI*.
However timecharter rates are much worse now ($5,700/day for a Panamax) than they were then ($9,500/day). It is necessary to look back to 1986 to see nominal timecharter rates as low as today in annual average terms.
The spot market is in even worse condition: according to a theoretical voyage cost calculation across a representative sample, almost a fifth of aggregate earnings for Capesize vessels on the spot market would have been negative this year to date, taking into account individual vessel fuel consumption characteristics.
Asset values at scrap-plus
With earnings currently at OPEX or below, even 15 year old vessels are now being valued at their realisable scrap value, plus a nominal mark-up for vessel-specific condition. Age beyond 15 years is now purely a number and has little impact on value. The extreme levels to which prices for old vessels have collapsed can be seen in the Chart below, which compares the current second hand Panamax vessel values in terms of Net Replacement Value (NRV) with historical ranges.
Thoughts are no longer fixated on how low earnings and prices will fall – the general consensus is that both are at or near the floor. The focus is now on the shape of the downturn – or rather how long it will last. First and foremost is there any hope for bulker earnings and prices in 2016?
In terms of downward momentum, the good news is that the end is nigh with an expectation that second-hand prices will bottom out at levels marginally below current values during 2Q 2016 for almost all ages and sizes of dry bulk carriers.
This is underpinned by expectations of a minor rate correction in Q2, driven by a seasonal uptick in iron ore imports by China and strong South American grains exports. Enthusiasm should be tempered for the remainder of this year, however; the outlook for dry bulk supply/demand fundamentals in aggregate for 2016 is far from promising, with supply growth set to more than offset demand growth by a small margin.
Changing demand dynamics
The story is not much brighter for beyond this year – it is not until 2018 before we see any sustained improvement in market balances. Moreover, there are significant risks on the downside to this view.
In MSI’s latest dry bulk report we present a scenario in which plausible downside risks to MSI’s forecast for Chinese and Indian coal imports and Chinese iron ore imports are realised, including a robust supply-side response. Under this scenario, we would not anticipate an uptick in market balances or timecharter rates before 2020.
Source: Maritime Strategies International
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Thursday, 07 April 16
PANAMAX RATES ARE FIRMING IN BOTH HEMISHEPHERES - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
With a great volume our of west Australia, rates were finally moving to upper 3's. and stabilizing towards the middle of the week in ...
Thursday, 07 April 16
BIMCO AND GIIGNL PUBLISH A GROUNDBREAKING VOYAGE CHARTER PARTY FOR LNG TRADE
BIMCO and the International Group of Liquefied Natural Gas Importers (GIIGNL) have today jointly issued the first definitive voyage charter party & ...
Wednesday, 06 April 16
HOW LONG SHIPPING CRISIS WILL BE; WHEN SHOULD OWNERS EXPECT THE BULK CARRIERS TO BECOME PROFITABLE? - INTERMODAL
It is the consensus that dry bulk shipping has been in a crisis for quite some time now. Bulk carrier values are at historical low levels, therefor ...
Monday, 04 April 16
THE LOADING, AND SUBSEQUENT DISCHARGE, OF UNSAFE NICKEL ORE - ALL TIME TO 'COUNT' - THE STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a recent, published, London arbitration award the English tribunal has held that all time lost as a result of loading, ...
Monday, 04 April 16
INDONESIA CS57 COAL INDEX SLIDES SLIGHTLY WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin fell 0.07 percent week over week to averaging $38.88 per ton on this past Friday, ac ...
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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