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Tuesday, 05 April 16
DRY BULK REVISITS 1980S LOWS AND FACES UNCERTAIN LONGER TERM OUTLOOK - MSI | HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 With the market near bottom, attention is turning to the length of the downturn, the effect on asset values and the impact of broader demand side changes.
April 4, 2016. In terms of annual average fleet employment rates, the dry bulk market has now dropped to levels last seen over 20 years ago in 1992, according to the latest quarterly dry bulk market forecast from MSI*.
However timecharter rates are much worse now ($5,700/day for a Panamax) than they were then ($9,500/day). It is necessary to look back to 1986 to see nominal timecharter rates as low as today in annual average terms.
The spot market is in even worse condition: according to a theoretical voyage cost calculation across a representative sample, almost a fifth of aggregate earnings for Capesize vessels on the spot market would have been negative this year to date, taking into account individual vessel fuel consumption characteristics.
Asset values at scrap-plus
With earnings currently at OPEX or below, even 15 year old vessels are now being valued at their realisable scrap value, plus a nominal mark-up for vessel-specific condition. Age beyond 15 years is now purely a number and has little impact on value. The extreme levels to which prices for old vessels have collapsed can be seen in the Chart below, which compares the current second hand Panamax vessel values in terms of Net Replacement Value (NRV) with historical ranges.
Thoughts are no longer fixated on how low earnings and prices will fall – the general consensus is that both are at or near the floor. The focus is now on the shape of the downturn – or rather how long it will last. First and foremost is there any hope for bulker earnings and prices in 2016?
In terms of downward momentum, the good news is that the end is nigh with an expectation that second-hand prices will bottom out at levels marginally below current values during 2Q 2016 for almost all ages and sizes of dry bulk carriers.
This is underpinned by expectations of a minor rate correction in Q2, driven by a seasonal uptick in iron ore imports by China and strong South American grains exports. Enthusiasm should be tempered for the remainder of this year, however; the outlook for dry bulk supply/demand fundamentals in aggregate for 2016 is far from promising, with supply growth set to more than offset demand growth by a small margin.
Changing demand dynamics
The story is not much brighter for beyond this year – it is not until 2018 before we see any sustained improvement in market balances. Moreover, there are significant risks on the downside to this view.
In MSI’s latest dry bulk report we present a scenario in which plausible downside risks to MSI’s forecast for Chinese and Indian coal imports and Chinese iron ore imports are realised, including a robust supply-side response. Under this scenario, we would not anticipate an uptick in market balances or timecharter rates before 2020.
Source: Maritime Strategies International
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Monday, 04 April 16
CAPE INDEX JUMPED 70% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continued to rose this week.
The freight market was ...
Friday, 01 April 16
ASSESSING THE DRY BULK MARKET AT ROCK BOTTOM - CLARKSONS
While the opening months of the year are typically a weak period for the dry bulk market, the downturn so far this year has been severe. Earnings h ...
Friday, 01 April 16
NINE AM - TIME TO GET AN INDONESIAN LANGUAGE VERSION OF YOUR CHARTERPARTIES - CLYDE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
For several years, Indonesian law (Article 31, Law Number 24 of 2009) has required that memoranda of understanding (" ...
Friday, 01 April 16
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION UP SLIGHTLY WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11.6 million shor ...
Thursday, 31 March 16
CAPE: ANOTHER UNEVENTFUL WEEK WITH FIXTURES CONCLUDED AT LAST DONE LEVELS - FEARNLEYS
Cape
Another uneventful week with fixtures concluded at last done levels, CS levels remain around the USD 3 mark, whilst C3 is still just short o ...
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
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