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Tuesday, 05 April 16
DRY BULK REVISITS 1980S LOWS AND FACES UNCERTAIN LONGER TERM OUTLOOK - MSI | HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 With the market near bottom, attention is turning to the length of the downturn, the effect on asset values and the impact of broader demand side changes.
April 4, 2016. In terms of annual average fleet employment rates, the dry bulk market has now dropped to levels last seen over 20 years ago in 1992, according to the latest quarterly dry bulk market forecast from MSI*.
However timecharter rates are much worse now ($5,700/day for a Panamax) than they were then ($9,500/day). It is necessary to look back to 1986 to see nominal timecharter rates as low as today in annual average terms.
The spot market is in even worse condition: according to a theoretical voyage cost calculation across a representative sample, almost a fifth of aggregate earnings for Capesize vessels on the spot market would have been negative this year to date, taking into account individual vessel fuel consumption characteristics.
Asset values at scrap-plus
With earnings currently at OPEX or below, even 15 year old vessels are now being valued at their realisable scrap value, plus a nominal mark-up for vessel-specific condition. Age beyond 15 years is now purely a number and has little impact on value. The extreme levels to which prices for old vessels have collapsed can be seen in the Chart below, which compares the current second hand Panamax vessel values in terms of Net Replacement Value (NRV) with historical ranges.
Thoughts are no longer fixated on how low earnings and prices will fall – the general consensus is that both are at or near the floor. The focus is now on the shape of the downturn – or rather how long it will last. First and foremost is there any hope for bulker earnings and prices in 2016?
In terms of downward momentum, the good news is that the end is nigh with an expectation that second-hand prices will bottom out at levels marginally below current values during 2Q 2016 for almost all ages and sizes of dry bulk carriers.
This is underpinned by expectations of a minor rate correction in Q2, driven by a seasonal uptick in iron ore imports by China and strong South American grains exports. Enthusiasm should be tempered for the remainder of this year, however; the outlook for dry bulk supply/demand fundamentals in aggregate for 2016 is far from promising, with supply growth set to more than offset demand growth by a small margin.
Changing demand dynamics
The story is not much brighter for beyond this year – it is not until 2018 before we see any sustained improvement in market balances. Moreover, there are significant risks on the downside to this view.
In MSI’s latest dry bulk report we present a scenario in which plausible downside risks to MSI’s forecast for Chinese and Indian coal imports and Chinese iron ore imports are realised, including a robust supply-side response. Under this scenario, we would not anticipate an uptick in market balances or timecharter rates before 2020.
Source: Maritime Strategies International
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Tuesday, 12 April 16
NO FURTHER SIGNIFICANT COAL PRICE DECLINES IN THE FUTURE - FITCH
COALspot.com: Fitch does not expect further significant coal price declines because producers sector-wide are suffering losses while China and Indo ...
Monday, 11 April 16
ON THE TIGHTROPE, IT CAN BE HARD TO KEEP YOUR BALANCE.... - CLARKSONS
Today’s headlines often point towards the impact of the demand side on the state of health of the shipping markets. But despite the fact that ...
Monday, 11 April 16
WEEKLY CS (I) COAL INDEX FOR 5700 GAR COAL UP 0.03 CENTS, OR ABOUT 0.06 PERCENT, TO $48.21 A TON
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin fell 0.15 percent week over week to averaging $38.82 per ton on this past Friday, ac ...
Monday, 11 April 16
COAL IS NOT THE ENEMY TO FIGHT - ANDREA CLAVARINO, ASSOCARBONI
COALspot.com: “Coal is not the enemy to fight and electricity production from coal has an environmental impact in its lifecycle similar to na ...
Monday, 11 April 16
FORTY INDIAN COAL IMPORTERS UNDER THE DRI SCANNER FOR OVER-INVOICING : HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The Finance Ministry and the Directorate of Revenue Intelligence (DRI) of India are said to have stepped up investigations into the alleged over-in ...
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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