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Tuesday, 05 April 16
DRY BULK REVISITS 1980S LOWS AND FACES UNCERTAIN LONGER TERM OUTLOOK - MSI | HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 With the market near bottom, attention is turning to the length of the downturn, the effect on asset values and the impact of broader demand side changes.
April 4, 2016. In terms of annual average fleet employment rates, the dry bulk market has now dropped to levels last seen over 20 years ago in 1992, according to the latest quarterly dry bulk market forecast from MSI*.
However timecharter rates are much worse now ($5,700/day for a Panamax) than they were then ($9,500/day). It is necessary to look back to 1986 to see nominal timecharter rates as low as today in annual average terms.
The spot market is in even worse condition: according to a theoretical voyage cost calculation across a representative sample, almost a fifth of aggregate earnings for Capesize vessels on the spot market would have been negative this year to date, taking into account individual vessel fuel consumption characteristics.
Asset values at scrap-plus
With earnings currently at OPEX or below, even 15 year old vessels are now being valued at their realisable scrap value, plus a nominal mark-up for vessel-specific condition. Age beyond 15 years is now purely a number and has little impact on value. The extreme levels to which prices for old vessels have collapsed can be seen in the Chart below, which compares the current second hand Panamax vessel values in terms of Net Replacement Value (NRV) with historical ranges.
Thoughts are no longer fixated on how low earnings and prices will fall – the general consensus is that both are at or near the floor. The focus is now on the shape of the downturn – or rather how long it will last. First and foremost is there any hope for bulker earnings and prices in 2016?
In terms of downward momentum, the good news is that the end is nigh with an expectation that second-hand prices will bottom out at levels marginally below current values during 2Q 2016 for almost all ages and sizes of dry bulk carriers.
This is underpinned by expectations of a minor rate correction in Q2, driven by a seasonal uptick in iron ore imports by China and strong South American grains exports. Enthusiasm should be tempered for the remainder of this year, however; the outlook for dry bulk supply/demand fundamentals in aggregate for 2016 is far from promising, with supply growth set to more than offset demand growth by a small margin.
Changing demand dynamics
The story is not much brighter for beyond this year – it is not until 2018 before we see any sustained improvement in market balances. Moreover, there are significant risks on the downside to this view.
In MSI’s latest dry bulk report we present a scenario in which plausible downside risks to MSI’s forecast for Chinese and Indian coal imports and Chinese iron ore imports are realised, including a robust supply-side response. Under this scenario, we would not anticipate an uptick in market balances or timecharter rates before 2020.
Source: Maritime Strategies International
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Friday, 15 April 16
U.S WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT FALLS ACROSS ALL BASINS - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 10.2 million short tons (mm ...
Thursday, 14 April 16
AUSTRALIAN MINING SERVICES SECTOR SQUEEZED BY MINERS' COST CUTS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings says mining services companies' revenues and margins will remain under pressure as miners continue to focus on reducing costs ami ...
Thursday, 14 April 16
DRY BULKERS' PRICES COULD BE HEADING UPWARDS AS BUYERS' APPETITE INCREASES - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Investment sentiment is beginning to trend upwards in the market for second hand dry bulk carriers. According to the latest weekly report from ship ...
Wednesday, 13 April 16
U.S COAL PRODUCTION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY 16 PER CENT IN 2016; THE LARGEST ANNUAL PERCENTAGE DECLINE SINCE 1958 - EIA
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production in March 2016 was 52 million short tons (MMst), a 2 MMst (4%) decrease from the previous month and 29 MMst ...
Tuesday, 12 April 16
INDONESIA COAL BENCHMARK PRICE INCREASES FOR SECOND STRAIGHT MONTH
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Benchmark Price Increases For Second Straight Month in April 2016.
The Director General of Mine ...
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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