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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 22 September 15
1Q16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP DECLINED 6.49 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The 4Q swap declined $ 2.29 (-5.42%) per t ...
Tuesday, 22 September 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS FALL CONTINUES
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Monday, 21 September 15
Q4' 15 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q2' 16 SWAP
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery increased $0.43 per ton (1.01%) month over month to US$ 42.95 per ton. The ...
Monday, 21 September 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP GAINED WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 0.45 (0.90 %) per ton month over month.
A commodit ...
Monday, 21 September 15
KOMIPO OF KOREA INVITES BIDS FOR BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 390,000 Metric Tons (MT) of minimum 4,600 kcal ...
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- The University of Queensland
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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