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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 30 September 15
Q1'16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FALLS $1.25 A TON AS SLIDE CONTINUES
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q4 swap declined $ 0.72 (-1.78%) per t ...
Wednesday, 30 September 15
NEW BUILDING MARKET INSIGHT
COALspot.com: This year has been, beyond any doubt, a rather strenuous one for the newbuilding market. Ordering activity with regards to Dry Bulker ...
Tuesday, 29 September 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS ARE SLIDING
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The Q4 swap was down US$ ...
Monday, 28 September 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS UP $2.15 IN ONE MONTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery increased $2.10 per ton (5.15%) month over month to US$ 42.93 per ton. The ...
Monday, 28 September 15
CAPESIZE FLEET INCREASES BY JUST 1 VESSEL DURING LAST 12 MONTHS, IN POSITIVE SIGN FOR DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
After a rather tumultuous period, the shipping industry and more particular the dry bulk market has started to adjust to the new realities of globa ...
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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