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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Sunday, 20 September 15
BALTIC CAPE INDEX ROSE 66.52 PER CENT AND STAND NOW AT 1995 POINTS
COALspot.com: The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) rose 17.35 per cent week over week to 960 points on Friday mainly driven by the Capesize segment. The Cape ...
Friday, 18 September 15
SHIPPING AND THE FED RATE DECISION: FINANCING COSTS COULD RISE EVEN HIGHER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Regardless of the FED’s decision to raise rates, shipping stands to be influenced by the decision. Shipbroker Allied Shipbroking noted this w ...
Friday, 18 September 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED 6.7 PER CENT W-W: EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.4 million shor ...
Thursday, 17 September 15
COALSPOT HAS LAUNCHED NEW THERMAL COAL INDICES FOR INDONESIAN COAL
COALspot.com has today launched real-time CS (i) Coal Indices.
The Indices represents 3800 kcal/kg GAR, 4200 kcal/kg GAR, 5000 kcal/kg GAR a ...
Thursday, 17 September 15
LOW DEMAND PUSH COAL SWAP DOWN
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and gain week over week.
The 4Q swap declined $ 1.77 (-4.17%) ...
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Coal Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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