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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 15 June 16
THE DRY BULK PRICES CORRECTED UPWARDS ROUGHLY 15% - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
Once more, the international shipping community turned its attention to Greece and more specifically to Attica that hosted Posidonia, the biggest m ...
Tuesday, 14 June 16
CS COAL INDICES ROSE UP FOR A THIRD STRAIGHT WEEK; 4200 GAR COAL UP 0.73%
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was up 0.54 percent week over week to averaging $39.37 per ton this past week, shows ...
Monday, 13 June 16
DEMAND FOR DRY BULK COMMODITIES COULD PROVIDE FUTURE BOOST FOR SHIP OWNERS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
When it comes to the dry bulk market, shipowners these days are looking for news in any shape or form they can find them. However, as the discussio ...
Monday, 13 June 16
ONSHORE SHALE: WORTH KEEPING IN THE SHIPPING SPOTLIGHT CLARKSONS
Generally, shipping industry watchers spend much of their time monitoring events out to sea: how fleets are evolving, trade volumes growing and fre ...
Monday, 13 June 16
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 5.03% MORE COAL IN MAY; AVERAGE SELLING PRICE DECLINED 2.08% FROM APRIL
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU 1.162bill ...
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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