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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 08 June 16
THE DRY BULK MARKET KEPT MOVING SIDEWAYS LAST WEEK; SECOND HAND PURCHASES MOVING NORTH - INTERMODAL
Once again its Posidonia time and the biannual exhibition takes place during a very warm June here in Athens, as if the performance of the dry bulk ...
Tuesday, 07 June 16
CS COAL INDEX ROSE FOR SECOND STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was up 0.38 percent week over week to averaging $39.16 per ton this past week, shows ...
Monday, 06 June 16
BDI GAINED ON A STRONGER DEMAND FOR CAPESIZE SHIPS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose this past week on a stronger demand for Capesize ves ...
Friday, 03 June 16
DRY BULK VESSEL DELIVERIES COULD BE LESS THAN 50 MILLION DWT IN 2016, AS OWNERS DELAY OR CANCEL NEWBUILDING ORDERS
The dry bulk market has been caught between a rock and a hard place over the course of the past couple of years, as on one hand demand has plunged, ...
Friday, 03 June 16
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION SLIDES 1.3% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11.5 million short tons (mm ...
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Planning Commission, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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