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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 27 June 16
THE BDI UP 3.75 PERCENT ; BCI FELL 1.51% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose this past week. The BDI was up 3.75 percent from las ...
Monday, 27 June 16
INDONESIA BANS (AGAIN) SHIPS SAILING TO THE PHILIPPINES FROM INDONESIA
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Transport Ministry strictly prohibited harbour masters issuing permits to all Indonesian-flagged vessels bound for the ...
Friday, 24 June 16
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP MARGINALLY
COALspot.com – U.S, world’s one of the largest coal producers has produced approximately totalled an estimated 13.4 million short tons ...
Wednesday, 22 June 16
SMALL RISE IN SHIPPING CONFIDENCE - MOORE STEPHENS
In May 2016, the average confidence level expressed by respondents in the markets in which they operate was 5.1 on a scale of 1 (low) to 10 (high). ...
Wednesday, 22 June 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
Stagnation- With the BDI stuck in the low 600 points for almost a month now, if we had to choose a word to describe the state of the Dry Bulk freig ...
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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