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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 22 November 16
THE COMMODITIES MARKETS HAD SHOWED GREATER PROMISE SINCE THE SUMMER PERIOD - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
We have all borne witness to the sluggish pace of trade growth witnessed during the course of the past 4 years as well as the even slower pace note ...
Monday, 21 November 16
CHINA IS ESTIMATED TO SEE HIGHEST IMPORTED COAL DEMAND LEVEL IN 2017, POLL SAYS
“Which country is estimated to see highest imported coal demand level in 2017?”
The on-line opinion poll conducted by COALsp ...
Monday, 21 November 16
KOMIPO IS LOOKING FOR 140K MT OF SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL FOR FEB-MAR 2017 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 140,000 Metric Tons of Sub-Bituminous coal for i ...
Monday, 21 November 16
BALTIC DRY INDEX SURGES TO 1257 POINTS W/E 18 NOV; BPI ROSE 37.3% W/W
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rally continues this past week and ending on a positive n ...
Friday, 18 November 16
CAPESIZE: THE COMMODITIES PRICES ARE INCREASING, RESULTING IN MORE DEMAND AND CONSEQUENTLY RATES ARE MAKING A BIG JUMP - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Apart from booming S. Africa where owners have obtained USD 14-15k to MEG/India and around mid USD 12k to China, the Pacific market has ...
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The University of Queensland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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