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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 29 November 16
US WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT TOTALS 17.2 MMST, UP 2.8% : EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 17.2 million short ton ...
Monday, 28 November 16
BALTIC DRY INDEX FALLS TO 1181 POINT, DOWN 76 POINTS W/W
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities down slightly and ending in a negative note this past wee ...
Thursday, 24 November 16
SUPRAMAX: SOUTH AFRICA STILL STRONG WITH OWNERS ACHIEVING AROUND USD 14-15K FOR TRIPS EAST - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
A positive kick-off in both the Atlantic and the Pacific. Very healthy rates within USG, some supras receiving well over 20k for trips t ...
Wednesday, 23 November 16
MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER THOMAS WHITTY
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is due to finalize a reduction in total production at its next scheduled meeting in Vi ...
Tuesday, 22 November 16
ITALY'S STEAM COAL IMPORTS EXPECTED TO DECLINE 7% Y/Y TO 15 MILLION TONS IN 2017 - ITALIAN COAL ASSOCIATION
Italy’s steam coal imports expected to decline to 15 million tons in 2017, or 7% less imports compared to 2016. The coking coal imports are e ...
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Planning Commission, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
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