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Wednesday, 17 February 16
THE OWNERS FACING HISTORICAL LOW DRY BULK RATES; COAL IMPORTS TO CHINA IS STILL POINTING TO A STRONG TREND OF DECLINING CONSUMPTION
 The sharp fall in dry bulk rates that has been taking place since the end of last year and has left owners facing historical low rates for a substantial period of time, has now everyone wondering; how long can it last and what are those developments that could expedite the recovery.
According to our data for vessels above 20,000dwt, 2016 deliveries amount to 887 vessels, a scary number indeed even if one takes into account expected slippage. On the balancing side is of course demolition activity. A little less than 400 vessels were sent for scrap last year, while in the first six weeks of 2016 alone we count 83 demo sales. If scrapping activity for the rest of the year continues at this pace, demolition activity this year will easily top 2015.
Every single market participant is now anxious to see how rates will behave once the Chinese New Year festivities are over. At the same time, fundamentals for the big bulkers, the trade of which is closely tight to China, remain challenging. Chinese iron ore imports, despite reaching record levels, have been unable to help Capesize rates, while coal imports to the country are still pointing to a strong trend of declining consumption.
Lay-ups, an extreme thought not too long ago, have now become an everyday topic amongst owners. We also observe on a weekly basis that the number of 15yrs old vessels available for sale increases, while their owners are now more at ease with the idea of even selling them for scrap. Asset prices have naturally been plunging. Below are some representative example of the sharp fall.
Capesize
The “Nordtramp” - 170k dwt blt 2001 Koyo, Japan was sold last year at $17.1m, while the “Kohyohsan” - 172k dwt blt 2001 NKK, Japan was sold recently at $5.0m. Moreover, this summer we saw the “Churchill Bulker” - 179k dwt blt 2011 Hyundai, S. Korea committed in August at $37.0m, eventually failing and being sold three months later at $28.5m, 23% less. Two weeks ago the “Obelix” 180k dwt blt 2011 Imabari, Japan, was reported sold at $23.5m. Since the beginning of 2016, 22 Capesize vessels have been sold for demo, while 21 have been delivered.
Panamax
The “Thalia” - 75k dwt blt 2001 Hitachi, Japan was sold twelve months ago at $9.5m, while last week the “Cymbeline” - 73k dwt blt 2001, Sumitomo, Japan was sold at $3.3m a decrease of about 65%. The “Unity Pride” - 81k dwt blt 2011 Hyundai, S.Korea was sold at $17.6m back in April 2015. At Christmas we saw the “Archimedes” - 81k dwt blt 2011 Hyundai, S. Korea being sold at $14.5m, failing and coming up for sale once again, with interested parties not willing to offer above $12.0m. Since the beginning of 2016 a number of 33 vessels have been sold for demo, while 30 have been delivered.
It is definitely the “buy low” phase of this cycle. This of course is something that naturally leaves owners striving to survive utterly indifferent at the moment and logically so. But for the more fortunate ones, with cash to support their investment for a reasonable time, the opportunity to renew their fleet is undeniable.
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 19 January 16
HAPPY NEW YEAR, COAL PRODUCERS! OR MAYBE NOT - ANDY ROBERTS
To coal producers, 2015 must have seemed far longer than 365 days. From their perspective, as bad as markets were at the beginning of the year, and ...
Tuesday, 19 January 16
COALTRANS ASIA IS RETURNING TO BALI
22nd Coaltrans Asia
Coaltrans Asia is returning to Bali to bring together over 1000 industry decision makers and thought leaders for three day ...
Monday, 18 January 16
INDONESIAN 5700 GAR COAL INDEX ROSE 0.60% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin decline slightly week over week to averaging $39.93 per ton on this past Friday, acc ...
Monday, 18 January 16
BALTIC DRY SHIPPING INDEX DROPS TO 373 POINTS; DECLINE 13% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market dropped this week as the BDI declined further 13 percent to 373 points week over week. The Cape index ...
Monday, 18 January 16
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 42.50 PER TON; UP 1% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose US$ 0.43 (1.02%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Planning Commission, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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