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Wednesday, 17 February 16
THE OWNERS FACING HISTORICAL LOW DRY BULK RATES; COAL IMPORTS TO CHINA IS STILL POINTING TO A STRONG TREND OF DECLINING CONSUMPTION
 The sharp fall in dry bulk rates that has been taking place since the end of last year and has left owners facing historical low rates for a substantial period of time, has now everyone wondering; how long can it last and what are those developments that could expedite the recovery.
According to our data for vessels above 20,000dwt, 2016 deliveries amount to 887 vessels, a scary number indeed even if one takes into account expected slippage. On the balancing side is of course demolition activity. A little less than 400 vessels were sent for scrap last year, while in the first six weeks of 2016 alone we count 83 demo sales. If scrapping activity for the rest of the year continues at this pace, demolition activity this year will easily top 2015.
Every single market participant is now anxious to see how rates will behave once the Chinese New Year festivities are over. At the same time, fundamentals for the big bulkers, the trade of which is closely tight to China, remain challenging. Chinese iron ore imports, despite reaching record levels, have been unable to help Capesize rates, while coal imports to the country are still pointing to a strong trend of declining consumption.
Lay-ups, an extreme thought not too long ago, have now become an everyday topic amongst owners. We also observe on a weekly basis that the number of 15yrs old vessels available for sale increases, while their owners are now more at ease with the idea of even selling them for scrap. Asset prices have naturally been plunging. Below are some representative example of the sharp fall.
Capesize
The “Nordtramp” - 170k dwt blt 2001 Koyo, Japan was sold last year at $17.1m, while the “Kohyohsan” - 172k dwt blt 2001 NKK, Japan was sold recently at $5.0m. Moreover, this summer we saw the “Churchill Bulker” - 179k dwt blt 2011 Hyundai, S. Korea committed in August at $37.0m, eventually failing and being sold three months later at $28.5m, 23% less. Two weeks ago the “Obelix” 180k dwt blt 2011 Imabari, Japan, was reported sold at $23.5m. Since the beginning of 2016, 22 Capesize vessels have been sold for demo, while 21 have been delivered.
Panamax
The “Thalia” - 75k dwt blt 2001 Hitachi, Japan was sold twelve months ago at $9.5m, while last week the “Cymbeline” - 73k dwt blt 2001, Sumitomo, Japan was sold at $3.3m a decrease of about 65%. The “Unity Pride” - 81k dwt blt 2011 Hyundai, S.Korea was sold at $17.6m back in April 2015. At Christmas we saw the “Archimedes” - 81k dwt blt 2011 Hyundai, S. Korea being sold at $14.5m, failing and coming up for sale once again, with interested parties not willing to offer above $12.0m. Since the beginning of 2016 a number of 33 vessels have been sold for demo, while 30 have been delivered.
It is definitely the “buy low” phase of this cycle. This of course is something that naturally leaves owners striving to survive utterly indifferent at the moment and logically so. But for the more fortunate ones, with cash to support their investment for a reasonable time, the opportunity to renew their fleet is undeniable.
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 22 January 16
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATES ALMOST FLAT
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.3 million shor ...
Friday, 22 January 16
COAL PRICES TO REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE THIS YEAR
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and week over week. The falling trend of prices for coal was continuing ...
Friday, 22 January 16
Q3' 16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 40.80; DECLINE $ 2.80 M-O-M
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap up month over month and decline week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB Richards B ...
Wednesday, 20 January 16
Q3'16 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED $ 2.40 LESSER THAN Q1'16 CLOSING PRICE OF $ 38.10
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose another $0.77 per ton (2.06%) this past week compared to the sam ...
Wednesday, 20 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASOS SOULAKIS
If you believe in the “January effect”, the theory according to which the beginning of a new year has a positive effect on financial in ...
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The University of Queensland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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